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Brian
Posts:2210
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Brian
Posts:2210
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Goingup?
Posts:148
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| 04/19/2008 12:00 AM |
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#1006 was, I believe, the first bank forclosure unit at Pinnacle. It involved Identity theft (rumor), but in any event all were happy to see them leave. My guess is this unit will close well above it's listing price. As for other cracks, unit #1501 just closed today for 90% above 2005 prices, and other units for sale there with views are listed (and selling) well above 100% 2005 prices. Unit 3101 went pending (or will go pending very soon, didn't even make it to MLS listing...another rumor), and is on the SW corner of the building. Look for a price around 1400 a square foot in a month.
Pinnacle right now is the premier bulding downtown. Every other bulding that came on line during the bubble era had at least 20% of the building come for sale after hitting the 2 year mark (500K tax free day). Pinnacle was the only exception. |
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dexter
Posts:25
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| 04/19/2008 2:48 AM |
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| 3101 is a South facing unit- SW and SE! Complete with 2 entry ways and even 2 more doors to separate the main entrances from the rest of the floor. Lucky guy/girl- I'll be sure to make friends with them soon. Goinup?, are you a resident there or just a fan of the building? If all goes smooth I'll be making my move in next week. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 04/19/2008 9:55 AM |
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There's no dispute that Pinnacle is perhaps the top building downtown..... But, even there are cracks there.
My prediction is that more condos at the Pinnacle will sell below 2005 prices, as they already have.... The more desirable units on the higher floor will follow.... It's only a matter for time.
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dexter
Posts:25
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| 04/19/2008 11:01 AM |
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What's the time line for this prediction?
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 04/19/2008 12:30 PM |
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Posted By dexter on 04/19/2008 11:01 AM
What's the time line for this prediction?
Winter of 2009 after the 2004 5-year ARMs begin to reset. I don't see how The Pinnacle can keep on holding while other nice building are already below 2004 prices.
Granted, there's a bifurcation between low-end and high-end but that won't last.
Buy if you like, but I'm renting and saving money. The only way I would buy now is if I could be guaranteed housing appreciation of at least the amounts of savings I get from renting.
For those who must buy now, how about a purchase contract where you pay 80% now, and the remaining 20% in two years, contingent upon the average of 3 independent appraisals. Any amounts below the original 80% would need to be made up by the selling broker + interest.
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 04/19/2008 12:34 PM |
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Posted By Goingup? on 04/19/2008 12:00 AM
#1006 was, I believe, the first bank forclosure unit at Pinnacle. It involved Identity theft (rumor)
Swell, blame it on the fraudsters.
What you fail to mention is that without the frauds (liar loans, etc..) that came to light, prices would have never reached "The Pinnacle".
The speculators made this market and they will undo it. Mark my words.
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dexter
Posts:25
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| 04/19/2008 2:59 PM |
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Well if that happens i'd love to get an additional unit, one over the 30th floor, south facing.
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Goingup?
Posts:148
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| 04/19/2008 11:51 PM |
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I remember when I first moved downtown in 1995. I had the choice of renting a nice two bedroom facing the water at City Front on a 3 year least for 1K per month, or buying a unit over looking the now Petco Park for 220K on the 20th floor. It was a tough choice, but I chose to rent, because the 500 HOA fee wasn't tax deductible.
I was young, and stupid (like Brian), but didn't realize it. It took me about 3 years of living downtown to figure out something special was going on around me.
When my lease up was they raised the price to 1800 a month, then offerred to sell me the unit a few years later.
I can see where Brian is coming from, renting is cheaper than owning (hey, I mad ethe same choice he did/has), but Downtown is not near the end of it's life cycle, it's only the beginning.
As for Pinnacle, it's a great building, and as for 3101, you do know what your talking about. I was in it the other day. It's very unique and special (and the owners a nice guys too). It is being bought by someone outside the US, probably as a second home. I own a unit there and use it as a second home. One of the benefits of living there, for me anyway, is most of the units are being used as second homes so the common areas are very under used. I can work out there in the afternoon and no one will be around. The pool is hardly ever used, and is great to have your own party. The ten foot ceilings make it seem less like an apartment and more like a home.
You'll love living there, and the prices will probably double in 7 years as the marina district is all built out except for one lot.
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u44674
Posts:1
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| 04/20/2008 10:58 AM |
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I hope all of you realize that Brian is not the one dragging the market down. I know all of us who own downtown are a bit peaved that property values are dropping fast. Some people who want more affordability are cheering thet on....thats all. We bought at the peak much like someone who bought Yahoo for 200$/share in 2000. Blaming Brian for these drops is silly. There is a glut of million dollar condos downtown. By even the most generous estimates one has to make $200,000 to afford a million dollar place. the median income in San Diego is around $60K. Unless that median goes to $100K or the prices must come down.
I would recommend reading the latest issue of Harper's magazine about the state of the economy. Credit will never be available like it was from 2003-2007. So brace yourself for bigger declines. But we bought for the long haul, so we should be OK (hopefully). |
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jpinpb
Posts:1449
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| 04/20/2008 11:11 AM |
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| Well, as bearish as I seem, I don't believe credit will never be available like it was from 2003-2007. The problem w/history is it repeats itself. Good and bad. You'd think we'd learn. No doc loans have always been around, just higher rate. Close to 0 down has been around, for those w/good credit for first time buyers. Interest rates always fluctuate and I wouldn't be surprised to someday see low rates again, although we will see much higher rates first. I don't think there will be rampant and profuse lending w/very lax terms, but all these varieties of loans have been available in one form or another. I think it was the combination of all of them in one loan that was the killer and maybe that's what will be much more tightly controlled. This problem wouldn't have gotten so out of control had the lenders taken more care. They were negligent b/c they were packaging them and selling them off, but even back in the '90's they were packaging loans, just not to this amassed degree. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 04/22/2008 6:45 PM |
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hahaha, I can only hope I had to the power to drag down the market. I'm just a chronicler of some salient examples.
Look at that lousy investment at The Pinnacle.
Of course, when that unit is eventually sold, years from now, people will forget all the negative cash flow that the owner had to endure for years. People will say: "see he bought for $685,000 and he sold for $700,000." Real estate was a good investment.
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-FD44AE46-550_Front_St_803_San_Diego_CA_92101#19956
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dexter
Posts:25
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| 04/22/2008 7:46 PM |
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| I hear homes are good for living in as well. |
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dexter
Posts:25
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| 04/22/2008 10:35 PM |
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| GoingUp? I have a question about The Pinnacle and don't want to hijack this thread. Is there an email I can contact you at or maybe I should give you mine? |
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jpinpb
Posts:1449
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| 04/22/2008 10:35 PM |
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| Trying to be fair here. Anyone that has a problem w/Brian posting about properties in decline are certainly welcome to post properties that are appreciating. It would be nice to have a balanced board. So rather than saying prices are going up, post properties that actually are. No one is saying you can't - well, maybe you can't if there are none. I'm sure there must be some. You can counter by showing us the ones that are appreciating. |
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Goingup?
Posts:148
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| 04/23/2008 6:35 AM |
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My whole point was Brian is simply looking at individual properties and not the whole picture.
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086005982-550_Front_St_1501_San_Diego_CA_92101
One unit just sold for 15K loss, yet another unit just closed with a 100% gain.
Dex, go ahead and hijack the thread, toss an email out if you want an indiviual answer.
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 04/23/2008 9:36 AM |
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Goingup? I find it ironic that you could be talking about making millions flipping and buying for the long-term in the same breath. So which is it? Flipping or holding?
If flippers in the primo buildings have made millions as you say:
1) Why are they getting out and taking losses right now?
2) Why don’t they hold for the long-term as you suggest? Why is there a glut of million dollar properties on the MLS. Shouldn’t they hold and cash-out in the future, or let appreciation grow their net-worth, as you have advise me? Perhaps you should have a homedebtor meeting in your own building and tell them that very same thing.
Answer: Homedebtors MUST get out now because they don’t have staying power. In other words, they don’t have the millions in cushion that you’re talking about.
Real estate boosters always advise to hold for the long-term. But they are the first ones to get out when the going gets tough. When the generals bail before the war, you can be sure there’ll be a crushing defeat.
As far as my psychological well-being in concerned, I’m perfectly well-adjusted. I never followed the hot-money and I don’t believe in get-rich-quick schemes. The savings add-up when you plug-along making wise investment decisions.
Unfortunately, I do have a “crack” addiction. I’ve entered the hallowed halls of the “crack houses” in Downtown San Diego and I’m hooked. I think that when those buildings stop cracking, I’ll sufer painful withdrawal symptoms. But, for now, I’m happy because I get my fix every day. At first, I had to get my fix in the "cheap" buildings but now I'm getting "crack" in the most luxurious towers Downtown for the same price.
I’m a dollar and cents person. And unless I see the numbers on a spreadsheet, then I’m not easily convinced.
As far are #1501 is concerned, of course, people who horded the "crack" early enough will be able to get out at a profit. But that doesn't mean that dealing now would result in a profit -- that's my point. We'll just have to see if #1501 was the latest knife catcher at The Pinnacle. I'd submit that at $925/sf, the price paid was pretty steep. #1706 is selling for $841/sf. Let's see how #2001 does in this market.
Now, look at #1404. If The Pinnacle were so great, why in the world would someone sell at a loss (after transaction costs) after 1 year of purchase?
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-C5796A1C-550_Front_St_1404_San_Diego_CA_92101#19985
Goingup?, contrary to what you're advocating, not too many buyers downtown are holding for "the long-term." Everyone is watching the market intently looking for the most profitable escape route. It's always dangerous when everyone is bailing.
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dexter
Posts:25
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| 04/23/2008 10:19 AM |
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| 1501 and 1706 are totally different units. There's a reason for that premium. All delusions aside, I believe that prices at the Pinnacle will continue to fall with the market. However, sw and se units are likely to maintain their value. |
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dexter
Posts:25
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| 04/23/2008 10:25 AM |
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| Goingup? My email is sliceofsd@yahoo.com |
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