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ScottSD
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| 05/09/2008 11:13 AM |
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| i'm curious. how do you find out what sold and what is in escrow? |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 05/09/2008 1:17 PM |
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Posted By ScottSD on 05/09/2008 10:13 AM
so for you guys that have been watching this longer than i have, what would you suggest for an offer that won't make me want to hang myself in 6 months?
ScottSD, like I said before, I would wait a least until the winter if I were you. You'll see more deal at that time, perhaps on the higher floors. You won't regret waiting.
If you're fretting about 6 months down the road, imagine the people who bought in 2004 and later. They've sunk in all that money into the "investments" and now: nothing.
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stella
Posts:360
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| 05/09/2008 1:29 PM |
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One of the hardest things to do is to buy when everything else says not to or sell when everyone is buying. I'm a mere 10% away or so from taking down a property downtown, Aria is really nice, at some point it's not a math thing anymore.
I didn't fall in love with a particular floor plan or anything and I'm glad as that likely would have pushed me into an offer. I do think they need to give the first group to take the plunge a good incentive to so. On the other hand they may slowly sell off units and the market may firm up once the foreclosure tsunami is over. We do know that prices aren't going to $0.00 and that the distressed properties will burn off. Short of the black plague there are still a lot of people that want to live downtown and San Diego in general. Frankly I love downtown and can't see myself living anywhere else in San Diego.
I've seen about every building, most of them are somewhat underwhelming but I really thought Aria hit a market segment that's right on. I hope this experience doesn't stop this type of product from getting built over the long term. |
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smp08
Posts:12
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| 05/09/2008 1:32 PM |
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I walked in and asked. There was a blond lady (that's apparently a temp) that was very rude, but one you can get past her, the brunette was very helpful and answered all of my questions.
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stella
Posts:360
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| 05/09/2008 1:46 PM |
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Posted By ScottSD on 05/09/2008 10:13 AM
so for you guys that have been watching this longer than i have, what would you suggest for an offer that won't make me want to hang myself in 6 months?
the one i'm eying is listed for $429k on the price drop list. down like $150k+ from its asinine original price. 1247 square feet. $344 ppsf. it's on the second floor, so its view is of the heritage apartments across the street.
i'm thinking it may not hurt to just wing an offer out there and see if they bite. i live at the heritage, so i can see how many lights are on in aria at night. i counted 5 last night. but if you guys think this is still pointlessly overpriced for where the market is going, please let me know. Is that the E plan that's on the suuthwest corner? Same model as the sales office and one of the models? I really like the inset deck and I like the shower set into the bathroom not floating. This is one of the better floorplans in my view.
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ScottSD
Posts:162
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| 05/09/2008 2:06 PM |
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| i think it may have been D. i'm not 100% sure. one of the things we liked about it was the very large living area. room for our big furniture and our full sized dining room table. |
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stella
Posts:360
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| 05/09/2008 2:26 PM |
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| I think the common areas are bigger while the bedrooms are smaller, this seems to be the trend all over. I wouldn't mind a bit more room in the bedrooms but that's not a major issue. |
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NativeSD
Posts:2
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| 05/10/2008 10:00 AM |
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| I went to Indigo Cafe on 6th about 8 months ago. Food was bad and service was bad. Sole Luna has good coffee and a great salmon salad. |
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ScottSD
Posts:162
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| 05/13/2008 2:35 PM |
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here's the current stats on aria.
14 units closed.
24 units in escrow.
136 units total.
that's 28% assuming escrow clears on all pending sales (probably unlikely).
buyers can't get FHA loans until a development hits 50% occupancy. looks like aria might be empty for a while. expect to be able to get an even better deal if their "grand opening" on the 17th doesn't draw buyers out of the woodwork.
i really dig this building and i love the weird floor plans with windows everywhere. but looks like i need to go back to examining the rental market more closely. |
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patinsd
Posts:39
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| 05/13/2008 3:30 PM |
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Scott,
Where did you get the sales data on Aria? Please point me to a link or walk me through how you got it.
Thanks,
Pat |
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ScottSD
Posts:162
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| 05/13/2008 3:32 PM |
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| my wife walked across the street, skipped the sales people, and talked directly to the chick handling the money. :) |
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stella
Posts:360
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| 05/13/2008 4:32 PM |
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I've seen at least two units at Aria listed for rent so some of the flippers decided to close.
I like this place too, I also like the pool. I do like the quirky factor with this place. Another 10% price drop and I think they'll get a lot of units sold as they'd easily start taking sales out of the foreclosure food chain.
If you like lower floor units on Cortez I'm pretty sure some low floor bank owned will be listed soon so stay tuned. |
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patinsd
Posts:39
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| 05/13/2008 6:31 PM |
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| Cool. Thanks. Since you live across the street, I hope you will keep giving us updates as you get them on Aria.... |
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ScottSD
Posts:162
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| 05/13/2008 6:38 PM |
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| will do. we'll be watching it closely. |
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ScottSD
Posts:162
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| 05/20/2008 8:45 AM |
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update on this.
they've closed on two more units (grand total of 16) and got 5 or 6 offers from their grand opening event this last weekend. who knows if those offers are legit. from what i've been told they're not entertaining anything resembling a low offer. they have a set amount of money to offer as an "incentive" for each unit. which will usually amount to a free year or two of HOAs max. i saw the list. the incentives ranged from $7000-11000 on average condos max. i didn't look at what the higher floor incentives were. but regardless, an extra $10k most likely isn't going to get someone to pull the trigger on one of these. |
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stella
Posts:360
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| 05/20/2008 9:07 AM |
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Thanks for the read. I'm seeing more lights on at night but it's still pretty dark.
This is a cool building that's for sure. |
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rentingman
Posts:280
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| 05/21/2008 1:44 PM |
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| I am petrified to buy in a new complex right now. I foresee two situations occurring. 1. The builder will send the building into BK and stop paying the HOA. Then you will be in a building without insurance, if something breaks it does not get fixed, and you may not even get water. 2. The builder will convert the remaining units to rental which kills your property value. I would always ask myself why am I buying. I admit it is great to say you own. However, do you really hate having to move multiple times like you do when you rent, and/or love decorating condos so much you need topay extra? |
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ScottSD
Posts:162
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| 05/21/2008 2:10 PM |
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i think for my wife and myself, aria it's a step above other downtown condos we've seen from a layout and cool factor perspective. i love the floor plans. i love the angular walls and tons of windows. it makes regular rectangular units in discovery look like junk. and we really like the location, too. as someone who commutes 35 miles each way to work, easy freeway access is a big plus. and as boring as cortez hill is, it's also very quiet. and the low ppsf at aria is also a selling point.
that said, i have the same concerns as you about HOAs and being converted into a rental. luckily (?) for me, i can't get a VA loan until the place goes to 51% occupancy. so that will keep me from getting totally knee-capped by the developer. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 05/21/2008 2:20 PM |
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I agree with the cool factor of Aria. I've seen the pictures but I've not visited yet. I'll make it a point to visit.
I like modern clean Australian design. |
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stella
Posts:360
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| 05/21/2008 2:36 PM |
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Brian,
You should check it out soon, it is so rare to be able to look at so many vacant great units in a nice building. Some of the floorplans are extremely cool. The frosted glass closet doors, it's extremely cool.
I think the developer ANKA has been around and while I don't know anything they probably have deep pockets. The construction lender, Corus Bank, is not in great shape but even if Corus goes under FDIC will see the loan on the building as an asset so it's not going to zero.
BTW, I do think Cortez will be a great neighborhood in 2-5 years. Vantage Pointe will open with a bunch of retail and even though it's debatable whether the condos make any sense to buy it'll be fill up with people and they'll be pleny of neighborhood retail that can be supported. Cortez needs a bar, another cafe, another coffee shop.
Cortez Hill is a bargain in terms of pricing, being close to the freeway is very nice. I used to live in the Marina District and really started to dislike driving through the city all of the time. |
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