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Electra...
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| 02/29/2008 4:56 AM |
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| Your right, over the last 30 years Real Estate in San Diego has been a horrible investment. Why, it's probably only increased 2000% in value in that time. Who in their right mind would want to put 600K at risk after viewing that statistic? Doesn't he know the stock market has a zero percent return the last 8 years and looks to be a much better investment from my renters viewpoint. Just because the CCDC says the population downtown will triple in the next 25 years means nothing. They've only been right on for 20 years now in their predictions, so what do they know? I say this flipper is going to get what's coming to him, I'm investing in horse buggies myself (cars will shortly be a thing of the past). |
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?
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| 02/29/2008 5:46 AM |
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550 Front St UNIT 2105 San Diego CA 92101 Sold 11/21/2005: $1,100,000
02/29/08 Zestimate®: $919,500
yeah... everybody is getting rich downtown. |
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jakob
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| 02/29/2008 8:31 AM |
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> Property management are $260/month
property management fee? isn't that what HOA is for?
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Brian
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| 02/29/2008 9:10 AM |
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Posted By n/a on 02/29/2008 8:31 AM
> Property management are $260/month
property management fee? isn't that what HOA is for?
If you use a Realtor or property management firm to rent out the unit for you, you have to pay them. Their fee is usually 10%. Unless, of course, you do the rental yourself and your time running around is free.
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Electra who??
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| 02/29/2008 9:17 AM |
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| whom ever you are "Electra..." horse buggies metaphor ?? and what's up with that statement, " ...my renters..." are you Natale Bosa ?? one of his sons perhaps ??? I smell a rat... |
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Brian
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| 02/29/2008 9:30 AM |
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Electra just doesn't get it.
Nobody said NEVER to buy. We are saying DON'T BUY NOW as long as you see big losses. Look at the huge inventory and the huge reductions on a monthly basis. Why would you buy now when you can wait 1 month and save $10,000? Wait another month and save another $10,000; wait another month and save another $10,000, and so on.
As long as prices keep on declining and inventory is high, there's not NEED to buy, when you can rent brand new. Why buy a crappy condo at Smart Corner, when you can rent a place with a view at Electra for the same price? Or rent at Smart Corner for $1300/mo and save the difference. Your savings cash will continue to grow and when it's time to buy, you'll have the big down-payment to negotiate the best deal.
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My Thoughts Exactly
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| 02/29/2008 10:15 AM |
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| I couldn't agree more with you Brian. |
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Electra...
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| 02/29/2008 11:49 AM |
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You can't trust Zillow for even being in the ballpark on downtown condo values. Unit 2205 just rented for $7500 a month off the MLS and unit #2605 just sold for $2.6M.
As for Brian's comments, I agree. But bottom timing in anything is very difficult. I've daytraded stocks for 10 years and picked the very bottom on any trade maybe once or twice. You just find a value you're comfortable with, and go with it. But my impression from you guys is the real estate world is ending and houses will all be free in the near future. If I'm wrong I apologize.
As for picking the bottom in real estate, I put money down on a new house in Eastlake, and in the 3 months it took to get ready the price dropped another 10% (IMO). I talked the bulider into moving me to another, larger house, for the same price (and throwing in another 100K in incentives).
It was just luck, clearly I was off on my bottom picking (and was about to blow 200K in three months time to prove it), but I'm still comfortable in buying at around these levels.
But just like the stocks I trade, I don't expect to time the exact bottom, I'd just like to get in the ballpark. |
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Brian
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| 02/29/2008 12:47 PM |
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Electra, it's cool that you are comfortable blowing $200k on a house. For the average American blowing $50k would land him in the poor house. Hence all the foreclosures and bankruptcies.
I don't know about your guys, but I'd rather blow $200k on a hottie on Rio than blow $200k on a developer's profit. But since your wife wears the pants, you won't have the opportunity to visit Rio any time soon. But since you just saved $200k, maybe you should blow it on a make-over for your wife instead.
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Anon
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| 02/29/2008 2:40 PM |
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Timing the bottom in real estate isn't anything like timing the bottom in the stock market. RE cycles are MUCH more drawn out, and when approaching or leaving the bottom of a cycle appreciation is very slow. Typically a RE market will sit at the bottom for years before making a significant positive move. This is evident in every boom-bust cycle which has occurred in the past, and I see no reason why it won't repeat again this time.
Simply wait for market prices to be flat for somewhere between 6mos and a year, and you're most likely at the bottom.
No RE bust that I've ever heard of has been followed by another immediate boom, so I'm not worried at all about "missing the bottom" - in CA, they tend to last for a good 3-4 years of appreciation somewhere between zero and inflation before the market starts to pick up steam again. |
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Market Watcher
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| 02/29/2008 2:54 PM |
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The bottom in housing will be like the bottom in Iraq... long and drawn out. You won't miss it. It's not like it'll improve overnight.
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Realwoman
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| 02/29/2008 6:26 PM |
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| Brian,
Your hateful attitude toward women suggests that you might be happier in a relationship with another man. Spare the women who read this forum all the misogyny, please. |
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?
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| 02/29/2008 6:49 PM |
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550 Front St UNIT 2105 San Diego CA 92101 Sold 11/21/2005: $1,100,000
02/29/08 Zestimate®: $919,500
This IS Electra's condo |
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More lies from Electra
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| 02/29/2008 7:27 PM |
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I noticed there were about 6 pendings today, so from viewpoint things are starting to heat up a bit. If you figure 450 units for sale at 30 a month that a huge supply, but at 50 a month it drops to an almost normal.
In Chula Vista I noticed almost 50% of pendings fall out of bed, but downtown the closing rate has been closer to 90%. Not sure of the reason, but the stats bear it out.
From Lews site:
Downtown Weekly Summary: February 27, 2008 (next update 03/05/08)
The number of condos for sale downtown was slightly lower this week, with 449 units on the resale market. There were 405 on the market this same period last year.
The average price was slightly higher this week, but -0.38% lower than the start of 2008, but still +3.08% higher than the same period 2007.
The median price was higher this week, +0.08% higher than the start of 2008, and +1.91% higher than the same period 2007.
The trimmed average price was higher, +3.97% higher than the start of 2008.
For the balance of the averages, go to the premium weekly recap page.
There were a total of 61 units pending sale during the previous 30 day period, with an average price of $598,326 and an average price per square foot of $484/sq.ft.
28 condos closed sale during the previous 30 day period, with an average price of $695,121 and an average price per square foot of $533/sq.ft.
Looks like many of the pending sales aren't actually getting closed.
Also, I check out Lew's site every week (the free stuff) and closed sales have never consistently been below 30 per month like they are now.
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guest
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| 02/29/2008 7:32 PM |
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According to "?" @ 6:49:
550 Front St UNIT 2105 San Diego CA 92101 Sold 11/21/2005: $1,100,000
02/29/08 Zestimate®: $919,500
This IS Electra's condo
Electra has also been lying about owning a $2 million dollar condo |
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John
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| 02/29/2008 7:41 PM |
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| Brad, your legal analysis omits reference to CC 1675(f), which is likely to apply here. Under this section, the seller will be entitled to prove actual damages once the unit resells. Based on the depressed real estate market, the unit will likely sell for 10-15% less than originally paid for. As such, seller will likely be able to recover most of the deposit. |
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guest
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| 02/29/2008 7:45 PM |
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Looks like Electra is having trouble renting out his albatross. From Craigslist:
Downtown San Diego Condo For Rent:
The Pinnacle, 550 Front St #2105, San Diego 92101
$7,000 |
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Your kidding?
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| 02/29/2008 7:48 PM |
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| $7000 a month?. Good luck. |
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Electra...
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| 02/29/2008 7:48 PM |
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"whom ever you are "Electra..." horse buggies metaphor ?? and what's up with that statement, " ...my renters..." are you Natale Bosa ?? one of his sons perhaps ??? I smell a rat..."
Oh, come on. It's called "satire" and without exaggeration how do you have satire?
As for timing the real estate market and it not being like stocks, in a normal market I agree. But this market is anything but normal. For over a year now downtown (92101) has averaged about 25-30 sales per month. Very constant. Well last week they did 26 pendings. Aberation or start of a new trend? Got me, I'm not buying anything to flip, I really want to try living in a house. I'm comfortable at this level, even if I'm overpaying. But, like buying stocks on the way down, I expect to be in the hole in the short term.
As for my wife, do "hot pants" count as pants? As for Rio, been there. I'll stick with my wife, thank you. |
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Electra...
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| 02/29/2008 8:31 PM |
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Geez, you "doomsday" types are tough. I can see why Lew shut down his Chatting site.
As for "pending vs sales" downtown, as I previously stated they both have been in the 30 range for nearly a year now. You'd wouldn't expect to see a rise in "sales" without "pendings" making a move first. As for pendings that fall out of bed, they vary between zip codes. Lew tracks downtown, and would have the exact stats, but from my experience pendings move to sales around 90% of the time. Now maybe in this enviroment it will move to 80% or even a little less, but still, 26 pendings in week would be considered very abnormal to anyone that's followed the market.
As for unit 2105 for 7K and the MLS listing, look a little further next time and you'll see unit 2205 just rented out for $7500 a month. It took a while to find a renter, but I suspect 2105 will have a simlar experience. One million dollar units don't rent for that price (my experience is they rent closer to 3K a month). As for Zillow and downtown condos, you'd be better off using a weegie board. Everyone even remotely familiar with downtown real estate knows that.
But like the 600K electra unit, the bigger question is why would these guys rent when they could sell their units for well over 2M? Clearly not everyone shares you guys view of the market and how to profit from real estate investing. Right now all the "experts" are on you guys side: Real estate prices will tank over the next couple years. I just don't see it, and am placing my bets accordingly.
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