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ownhomeinSD
Posts:1068
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| 06/24/2009 10:30 PM |
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Posted By coastrenter on 06/24/2009 9:51 PM
1. Sales volume dries up.
2. Prices fall a little.
3. Defaults skyrocket, prices fall a little bit more_ (This is where the high end areas are now)
4. The REOs finally hit the market in big numbers and prices plunge
5. Sales volume rise and prices fall back to normal. (This is where the low end areas are, plus nice but remote areas like Eastlake)
I agree most but I don't think "defaults skyrocket" is where the high end areas are now or will be. There will be some further price corrections in high end areas but don't expect a lot as low end areas did because high end areas have
1. low percentage of investment properties,
2. low percentage of foreclosures (rainning a few days in high end vs. flooding in low end)
3. lower unemployment rates (Del Mar 4.6%, Encinitas 6.7%, Carlsbad 6.2%, Solana Beach 5.8%, Coronado 6%) |
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coastrenter
Posts:105
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| 06/25/2009 9:52 PM |
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See article in U-T:
__Point Loma, Solana Beach and Rancho Santa Fe and other expensive areas reported numbers several times the level seen a year ago, a sign that the trend may continue upward.
For example, in Carmel Valley, where the median sale price this year is $676,500, there were 44 default notices in May, up from 14 in May 2008. May sales in the coastal community east of Del Mar totaled 54.__
I think more than tripling over last year counts as "skyrocket" especially when the number of NOD is getting close to the total number of sales for the month.
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/jun/20/pricey-neighborhoods-seeing-more-defaults/
The bottom line is that the economy continues to tank here and elsewhere. We are still at bubble prices on the coast, though the number of sales showing gigantic losses keeps rising.
Check out this SFH house that just sold for 32% below previous price in OB:
http://www.sdlookup.com/Property-7FEC56C0-2440_Seaside_St_San_Diego_CA_92107 |
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:1068
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| 06/25/2009 11:35 PM |
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| People have been thinking # of default notices = # of foreclosure homes. NO!!! Actually, many defaulted homes have two or more NODs because they have two or more loans. High prices (>$417,000), low downpayment (e.g. for 10% downpayment, you have 80% from 1st loan, 10% from 2nd loan), cash-out refi are all reasones for multipul loans to one home. Last year, when I was surching houses, my agent shown me one home with 5 loans for total amount $540k! Loan modifications will save some homes with NODs. So, you won't see foreclosures being more than 50% of NODS even without any
foreclosure moratoria. |
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Brian
Posts:4656
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| 06/26/2009 12:22 AM |
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A homeowner gets NODs when he/she has exhausted savings and can no longer make the payments. I don't see how a moratorium can save that type of homeowner.
The proportional difference between low-end and high-end will narrow and return to historical standards because of the principle of substitution. It will take another 5 years for this to unfold.
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cbr600f4i2
Posts:478
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| 06/27/2009 3:13 PM |
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| It's easy to sit and hide on a forum and lie about your agenda or what you do. Just suspicious to post bullish comments without facts. If you're in fact interested in buying do more research on the ground and less posting on a RE forum. |
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:1068
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SDScott
Posts:5
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| 06/30/2009 8:51 PM |
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for those that are curious:
137 units total
88 closed
12 in escrow
37 remaining
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AriaSanDiego
Posts:1
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| 09/10/2009 12:45 PM |
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I work at ARIA and have an update on our building sales - we are indeed very close to selling out with only the Sweet Sixteen still available.
We have been selling faster than most other downtown projects so if you were looking to buy at Aria its now or never because we are almost out of units.
SD Scott was correct in his numbers - those numbers updated as of 09/09/09 are below.
137 units total
117 units closed
2 units with offer
2 units with reservation
[b⑤ units available [/b]
Of those 16 remaining units 9 are from the Penthouse series
Floor plans remaining include - M, N, O and P http://aria-sandiego.com/plans.html
If you have any additional questions I’m happy to answer them or you can call the sales office 619-234-5800 or sign up for updates - http://aria-sandiego.com/register.php |
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wmcjjohnny
Posts:470
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| 09/11/2009 10:57 AM |
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Posted By AriaSanDiego on 09/10/2009 12:45 PM
I work at ARIA and have an update on our building sales - we are indeed very close to selling out with only the Sweet Sixteen still available.
We have been selling faster than most other downtown projects so if you were looking to buy at Aria its now or never because we are almost out of units.
SD Scott was correct in his numbers - those numbers updated as of 09/09/09 are below.
137 units total
117 units closed
2 units with offer
2 units with reservation
[b⑤ units available [/b]
Of those 16 remaining units 9 are from the Penthouse series
Floor plans remaining include - M, N, O and P http://aria-sandiego.com/plans.html
If you have any additional questions I’m happy to answer them or you can call the sales office 619-234-5800 or sign up for updates - http://aria-sandiego.com/register.php
"Hello, you've reached Aria, this is Cethis, how may I help you?"......lol.
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cbr600f4i2
Posts:478
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| 09/12/2009 11:50 AM |
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LOL Johnny!
I was talking to a realtor over the weekend. Plenty of foreclosures at Aria coming on the market, and you can buy lower than current prices from the sales reps at the front door. Since the project was built and priced in 2007 there will be plenty of former buyers jumping out of their units and handing the keys back to the banks. |
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Cethis
Posts:22
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| 09/14/2009 8:22 PM |
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Previous comment is a bit suspect...
Aria was recently approved VHA/FHA (VA), allowing buyers to pay 3% down. Before it was approved VHA/FHA, lenders required 10% down since the building was less than 50% sold, meaning that most buyers were required to pay 10% down in order to buy a unit. I do not believe a serious buyer who paid $30-$100K down would foreclose in less than a year. Further, the building was completed in early 2008 with a majority of buyers purchasing in late 2008. Therefore the previous comment is suspect, since the facts don't match.
After touring vantage point, ARIA is obviously a superior property.
I have been looking to buy in downtown, and ARIA continues to out perform the market.
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Cethis
Posts:22
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| 09/14/2009 8:24 PM |
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| no one would waste 30K-100K CASH, to foreclose within 12 months... |
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wilson
Posts:1704
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| 09/14/2009 9:55 PM |
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| Assuming SDlookup foreclosure/preforeclosure list has some relevant data, there are a whopping total of 4 units with a 9th avenue address. Not exactly a tsunami. |
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SDScott
Posts:5
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| 09/15/2009 9:04 AM |
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| 2 of the 5 foreclosures on the list on 9th can't be aria. there is no unit 1106. and there are no 4/4's. |
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wmcjjohnny
Posts:470
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| 09/15/2009 10:03 AM |
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Posted By Cethis on 09/14/2009 8:22 PM
Previous comment is a bit suspect...
Aria was recently approved VHA/FHA (VA), allowing buyers to pay 3% down. Before it was approved VHA/FHA, lenders required 10% down since the building was less than 50% sold, meaning that most buyers were required to pay 10% down in order to buy a unit. I do not believe a serious buyer who paid $30-$100K down would foreclose in less than a year. Further, the building was completed in early 2008 with a majority of buyers purchasing in late 2008. Therefore the previous comment is suspect, since the facts don't match.
After touring vantage point, ARIA is obviously a superior property.
I have been looking to buy in downtown, and ARIA continues to out perform the market.
Aria, Aria, Aria, Aria, Aria, Aria, Aria, Aria....must get word Aria out of my mind...what are these voices in my head? Five minutes to Wapner, five minutes to Wapner, five minutes to Wapner.....
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Brian
Posts:4656
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| 09/15/2009 12:48 PM |
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Posted By Cethis on 09/14/2009 8:24 PM
no one would waste 30K-100K CASH, to foreclose within 12 months...
You probably meant to say that nobody would risk a down-payment to lose the condo in foreclosure. That's what was said before.
The road to hell is paved with good intentions. And good intentions don't pay the mortgage. Wherewithal does.
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Brian
Posts:4656
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| 09/15/2009 12:52 PM |
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I drove up north on the 163 yesterday; and looking at Aria, the whole stack to the left looks empty. No need to waste time negotiating with the developer since there are plenty of competing foreclosures on the market?
BTW, Aria and Cethis, who is the construction lender on the property?
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