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UnsureBuyer
Posts:211
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| 08/27/2008 5:16 PM |
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Homes sales are up! For July, they were up 3.1% What does this mean? Well, take a look at the chart below (source: National Association of Realtors)
interpret away! (I'm bad at forecasting so that's why I have someone manage my assets for 1.5%...ouch) |
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denglish
Posts:27
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| 08/27/2008 5:49 PM |
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How about this: low price = more sales. Its the wal-martization of the housing market. Cheap crap sold cheap. Also, "must-sell" inventory, like that held by banks, will get sold at whatever price it takes. The more "must sell" invetory there is, the more sales there will be, just at whatever price is low enough to get them sold.
For those who consider prices going back up to be good news, I would look for news like a substantial (like 50-75%) decrease in the number of NOD/foreclosures or interest rates getting back down to their normal spread over 10 year t-bill rates. |
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tpc
Posts:498
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| 08/28/2008 9:16 AM |
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| D-good post. |
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Paul
Posts:1
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| 08/29/2008 9:39 AM |
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| "The Housing Data was not as "great" as I heard the cheerleaders on TV carrying on about... Here's the way I see the data... July New Home Sales rose 2.4%, and that's the number the cheerleaders were shouting about... But what they failed to mention is that a good piece of that 2.4% rise came about because of the downward revision in the previous months' numbers! It breaks down like this... June's number was revised down to 503,000 from a previously estimated 530,000. As a result, the level of sales in July of 515,000 was below market expectations of 521,000. Not so good looking now, eh? And June's revised number of 503,000? Well, The revised June number represents the lowest level of activity since 1991! But you I bet you didn't hear that on TV did you?" |
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