My Lookup  |  Register  |  Login  
 
 General Forums
Please use the feedback page for all website and agent comments and review the forum rules before posting.
    
Please login or register to post in the forums.
Subject: Monster Price Drops in Nice Areas

You are not authorized to post a reply.   
Page 3 of 8 << < 12345678 > >>
Author Messages
Just Someone
Posts:157
09/03/2008 7:00 AM Alert 
[quote] This is only one I checked and found $785,000 is actually close 2005 price!
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/charts/17204149_zpid,10years_chartDuration

Price drop? a little.[/quote]
I was looking at the community history listed in SDlookup, it's not perfect...
http://www.sdlookup.com/Community-1238-Blackhorse
ET
Posts:2
09/03/2008 7:46 AM Alert 
Could someone explain to me why Blackhorse could sell for so much even when it is a leasehold? UCSD who is the land owner could choose to do whatever with it in about 40 years. In another 10 years, would any bank be willing to finance a 30 year mortgage given the uncertainty of the property status?
ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
09/03/2008 8:30 AM Alert 
Now I see how listing price can mislead people, even you guys. Brian has been spewing out daily listing prices to tell people that how much prices have droped. This 9612 Claiborne Sq is a good example to tell people listing price can be as low as 99 cents or sky high. Only can sold prices in general well represent market prices but not a single sold price. Here is two examples to compare:

1. http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/11351-Avenger-Rd/16819793_zpid
2. http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/11403-Avenger-Rd/52513189_zpid

For 11351-Avenger, Brian would say it dropped to ~1960 price. I would say 11403-Avenger is close to market price (late 2003 or early 2004) in the area. A lot of factors (the way to transfer, house condition, noise, etc.) may affect sold prices for houses in same complex, we need to analysis in general. The following is a figure for home price trend in La Jolla. I didn't see significant price drop (20%-30% in general) in nice area, like La Jolla.







jpinpb
Posts:1450
09/03/2008 8:54 AM Alert 
Would this be considered a nice part of LJ? 5480 LJ Boulevard - Seahaus. Bought for almost 1.5 in 2005. Now listed for 1 million. Seems like a nice place w/ocean view. I can understand it's difficult to concede that the coast is not immune, but the reality is that there are price drops and since we are not at bottom, there will be more.
jpinpb
Posts:1450
09/03/2008 8:55 AM Alert 
That's JMO, BTW.
Brian
Posts:2210
09/03/2008 9:22 AM Alert 
I happen to know someone at Blackhorse. They think their place is still worth more than $1 million.


9612 Claiborne Square just closing at $785,000 is a big drop indeed. Especially if you compare it to the other listings and closings atBlackhorse. All those townhouses are very similar to each other.

If you look at the Zillow chart ownhomeinSD provided, you'll notice that the 1999/2000 "value" was about the same as when those townhouses sold back in the early 1990s -- hardly any appreciation at all.

ownhomeinSD, it's funny that you point to
11351-Avenger-Rd, in Mira Mesa as a comparison to La Jolla. If such drops can happen in Mira Mesa, what makes you think that such proportionate drops can't happen in La Jolla?

Everyone wants a good deal; and our job here is to find the killer deals, not to pay the prevailing asking (hoping) prices. If that were the case, we'd be out viewing houses with our favorite (if there's such person) Realtor.

ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
09/03/2008 10:29 AM Alert 
Posted By Brian on 09/03/2008 9:22 AM
I happen to know someone at Blackhorse. They think their place is still worth more than $1 million.


9612 Claiborne Square just closing at $785,000 is a big drop indeed. Especially if you compare it to the other listings and closings atBlackhorse. All those townhouses are very similar to each other.

If you look at the Zillow chart ownhomeinSD provided, you'll notice that the 1999/2000 "value" was about the same as when those townhouses sold back in the early 1990s -- hardly any appreciation at all.




Here is one that recently sold at more than $1 million at Blackhorse.
9695 Claiborne Sq, sold price $1,104,000. Its 2005 price is about $1.02 million.
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/9695-Claiborne-Sq/17204069_zpid

It is a 4br/2.5ba/2601sqft home and 9612 Claiborne Sq is a 2br/2.5ba/2174sqft home. Are those similar?

Zillow only provided 10 years chart. I don't know how you can see early 1990s price. For 9612 Claiborne Square, the 1999/2000 price is about $0.38 million. $0.785m - $0.38m=$0.405 million. Is it hardly any appreciation at all? I can't believe you said that.
78TTop
Posts:88
09/03/2008 10:45 AM Alert 
9612 Claiborne Sq sold for $42,900 in 1990. Hardly any appreciation at all. ;)
ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
09/03/2008 10:55 AM Alert 
Posted By Brian on 09/03/2008 9:22 AM
ownhomeinSD, it's funny that you point to
11351-Avenger-Rd, in Mira Mesa as a comparison to La Jolla. If such drops can happen in Mira Mesa, what makes you think that such proportionate drops can't happen in La Jolla?




Brian, I thought you are smart enough to understand what others said. Did I indicate to compare mira mesa with La Jolla in price trend in that post? The two examples in Mira Mesa area I provided is to say that not only listing prices can't represent market price but also a single sold price can't represent market price. For 11351-Avenger-Rd ( 4br/3ba/2228sqft), it worths about $547,000 (ZESTIMATE) but sold at $98,000. Definitely, $98,000 can't represent market price at all. It wasn't sold through regular path. For 11403 Avenger Rd (5br/3ba/1924aqft), it sold at $529,000 on 5/5/2008. It is close to its market price.

One more example:
9240 Longridge Way, its listing price was $0-$540,000. The sold price is $530,000. (Sdlookup took the middle price $270,000 as its listing price to compare with sold price, indicated a 96.30% increase from listing price to sold price)
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-081032424-9240_Longridge_Way_San_Diego_Ca_92126

Just Someone
Posts:157
09/03/2008 10:56 AM Alert 
9612 Claiborne Sq sold for $42,900 in 1990. Hardly any appreciation at all. ;)

Considering that similar properties were selling for about 500-600k, that is either an MLS typo (aka should be 492k), a generational transfer or a foreclosure.

Nearby Properties
Address Sales Date Price
9623 Claiborne Square 9/19/1989 $565,000
9615 Claiborne Square 8/29/1996 $350,000
9605 Claiborne Square 6/23/1989 $533,900
9612 Claiborne Square 1/10/1990 $42,900
Eugene
Posts:258
09/03/2008 10:57 AM Alert 
That'a typo. It sold for 429,000. Notice that Zillow gives tax assessed value of 566,222 in 2005, consistent with starting at 429,000 in 1991 and adding 2%/year (prop 13).
78TTop
Posts:88
09/03/2008 11:08 AM Alert 
Just Someone... you certainly have an eagle eye. Good work. Since those properties were built in 1989/90, strange sales prices often get recorded on sold units at new developments. Based on your comps, the sales price recorded for 9612 is an obvious error.
Brian
Posts:2210
09/03/2008 11:32 AM Alert 
Posted By Just Someone on 09/03/2008 10:56 AM
9612 Claiborne Sq sold for $42,900 in 1990. Hardly any appreciation at all. ;)

Considering that similar properties were selling for about 500-600k, that is either an MLS typo (aka should be 492k), a generational transfer or a foreclosure.

Nearby Properties
Address Sales Date Price
9623 Claiborne Square 9/19/1989 $565,000
9615 Claiborne Square 8/29/1996 $350,000
9605 Claiborne Square 6/23/1989 $533,900
9612 Claiborne Square 1/10/1990 $42,900





That was my point. $429,000 for 9612 Clairborne in 1990. Now $785,000. That's 83% return in 18 years. Compare that to returns on "cheap/not nice" Mira Mesa and Clairemont. Remember, at Blackhorse, there are HOA, taxes and remodeling requirements that eat into profits.

In 2000, 9612 Clairborne was, probably worth $500,000, hardly any profit in 10 years, and lower than original purchase price in real, inflation adjusted dollars. So much for high profits in "nice" areas!!

ownhomeinSD, sorry to break it to you but 9612 Clairborne at $785,000 is the new comp for the neighborhood.
Brian
Posts:2210
09/03/2008 12:33 PM Alert 
Its funny that owners still cling on to Zestimates to gauge the value of their houses. They get bent out of shape when Zillow undervalues their properties.

Kelly Blue Book does a better job at valuating cars, but try selling your car to a dealer or turning in your lease ahead of time. You'd be in for a surprise.

Zillow should have "wholesale" distress values for houses. That would cause people heartburns, hahaha.
Brian
Posts:2210
09/03/2008 12:49 PM Alert 
Below 2001 price at the "establishment" building downtown.
Do you guys/gals here agree that The Meridian is a "nice" area of Downtown?


700_Front_St_511_San_Diego_CA_92101

Now, $999,000

Look at price history. If you have any doubt that prices cannot stagnate and drop for a decade, think again.

09/16/2005 $1,250,000
08/02/2001 $1,139,000
07/01/1999 $533,000
08/31/1988 $583,000
ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
09/03/2008 12:49 PM Alert 
Posted By Brian on 09/03/2008 12:33 PM
Its funny that owners still cling on to Zestimates to gauge the value of their houses. They get bent out of shape when Zillow undervalues their properties.

Kelly Blue Book does a better job at valuating cars, but try selling your car to a dealer or turning in your lease ahead of time. You'd be in for a surprise.

Zillow should have "wholesale" distress values for houses. That would cause people heartburns, hahaha.


Zestimates is better than you took a single price for whole Blackhorse community or use 9612 Claiborne Sq to compare 9695 Claiborne Sq.

I well know Zillow undervalues most properties in San Diego. But it is useful to take it as a rough reference or look at general trend.
78TTop
Posts:88
09/03/2008 1:28 PM Alert 
>>> I well know Zillow undervalues most properties in San Diego.

That comment should get Brian's attention!
LoonyQT
Posts:894
09/03/2008 4:06 PM Alert 
thanks for the giggles today. :-)
ElPato
Posts:350
09/03/2008 4:15 PM Alert 
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-086014025-1775_Diamond_St_130_San_Diego_Ca_92109

41% off 2005 prices in PB, west of the I-5. Yep, it's the Plaza again, leading the charge down with foreclosures.

Sorry no clicky link.
LJczar
Posts:115
09/03/2008 5:22 PM Alert 
Condos... Shacks on busy streets... Nothing very convincing yet. I agree w/ NCgirl. It still looks like a basic 3 br SFH in PB (not on Grand or Ingraham) starts at $700K. That's about $4200 a month. Unaffordable to most. And about 2x the rent. Hello?
You are not authorized to post a reply.
Page 3 of 8 << < 12345678 > >>
 Forums  >  General  >  News  >  Monster Price Drops in Nice Areas
Please login or register to post in the forums.
 
 Active Topics
  
  
    
.................
Copyright 2007 sdlookup.com     Terms Of Use    Privacy Statement
The information being provided is for consumer's personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any other purpose. Data is believed to be reliable but not guaranteed.