LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 09/04/2008 5:56 PM |
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OK - I had copied/pasted and done some fun stuff with the inventory posted on sdlookup for all of sd county on 7/9. Well, I compared that to today. Here's the % change for the last 2 months by area (note that a 216% decrease in a place like jacumba represents a difference from 6 to 19 properties).
Basically, inventory is down 2.7% (from 19,275 in July to 18,757 today) and there was some movement in lots of neighborhoods over the summer.
Location/% change/# Condo Change/# SFR Change
Jacumba 216.6667% 0 12
Guatay 100.0000% 0 1
Rancho San Diego 24.0741% 7 2
Warner Springs 13.1579% 0 3
Pauma Valley 10.0000% 2 2
Boulevard 7.6923% 0 -1
Encanto 7.6487% 3 22
Escondido East 7.0330% 9 21
Serra Mesa 6.4516% 8 -4
Cardiff 6.3492% -2 6
North Park 5.8442% 10 -1
Solana Beach 5.4054% 2 4
Del Mar 5.3892% 6 3
Oceanside North (92057) 5.3388% 5 16
Fallbrook 4.2755% -4 23
Carlsbad (92010) 4.1096% 1 2
Vista South 4.0268% -1 7
Escondido South 3.8596% 6 6
Allied Gardens & Del Cerro 3.2520% -4 7
Poway 1.8433% 1 -2
El Cajon (92021) 1.6997% 10 -12
Vista East 1.5873% -2 2
Coronado 1.2397% 3 0
Logan Heights 1.1696% 6 -4
Rancho Santa Fe (92067) 1.1407% 2 1
Lakeside 0.9950% 2 3
Alpine 0.6667% -1 0
Escondido North 0.4149% -6 5
Dulzura 0.0000% 0 0
Linda Vista 0.0000% 4 -5
Penasquitos 0.0000% 0 0
Ranchita 0.0000% 0 0
Santa Ysabel 0.0000% 0 0
Chula Vista South -0.4739% 6 -10
Scripps Ranch -0.6667% -8 7
Imperial Beach -0.7752% -5 4
University City -0.7874% 10 -11
Carmel Valley -1.0830% -1 -2
Chula Vista Southeast -1.1628% -4 0
Encinitas -1.6611% -6 -5
Vista West -1.7544% -9 1
Julian -2.0408% 0 -3
San Marcos North -2.1127% 7 -15
La Jolla -2.1645% -21 11
El Cajon (92020) -2.2472% -5 -1
Lemon Grove -2.2556% 3 -6
Chula Vista Northeast -2.6786% 15 -21
Ocean Beach -2.7523% 3 -6
National City -3.2258% -8 1
Mission Valley -3.7736% -4 0
Borrego Springs -4.0000% -3 -2
Rancho Santa Fe (92091) -4.0816% 0 -2
Rancho Bernardo East -4.1401% 3 -17
Pacific Beach & Mission Beach -4.3478% -11 -2
Carlsbad South -4.5455% -1 -15
Oceanside East (92056) -4.8900% 2 -26
Chula Vista North -4.9869% 3 -19
Santee -5.0388% -11 -9
Ramona -5.4217% -9 -11
La Mesa Mt. Helix -5.5046% 0 -12
Valley Center -5.5300% 0 -11
Paradise Hills -5.6225% 3 -17
El Cajon (92019) -5.6940% -13 0
Hillcrest & Mission Hills -6.0000% -12 -3
City Heights -6.7416% -8 -13
Oceanside South (92054) -7.1023% -20 -11
Escondido West -7.3333% 4 -15
College Area -7.3684% -9 -12
San Marcos South -7.4359% -17 -18
Nestor -7.4427% -8 -28
Spring Valley -7.6923% 2 -41
Carlsbad North -8.5890% -6 -8
Morena -9.3220% -13 2
San Ysidro -9.5541% 0 -15
Chula Vista East Lake & Otay Ranch -10.0410% -32 -17
Campo -10.1695% 1 -9
Golden Hill -10.4167% -12 -1
Point Loma -10.8333% -2 -11
Downtown -10.9756% -62 -1
Tierrasanta -10.9756% -8 -1
Bonita -11.0092% -6 -6
Rancho Bernardo West -11.2583% -12 -22
Mira Mesa -11.4537% -2 -22
Bonsall -11.9403% 0 -8
Potrero -12.5000% 0 -2
Pine Valley -13.6364% 0 -3
Carlsbad (92011) -14.2857% -8 -24
Descanso -14.8148% 0 -4
Clairemont -14.8649% -1 -21
Jamul -16.2791% 0 -14
Palomar Mountain -16.6667% 0 -2
San Carlos -17.5676% 0 -13
Kensington & Normal Heights -18.7135% -21 -11
La Mesa Grossmont -23.4043% -8 -14
Pala -25.0000% 0 -1
Sorrento Valley -42.1053% -2 -6
Tecate -100.0000% 0 -1
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 09/04/2008 5:56 PM |
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| sorry for the bad formatting |
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tijknha
Posts:21
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| 09/04/2008 8:06 PM |
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I do not understand this....maybe I'm clueless.
For instance.
Sorrento Valley -42.1053% -2 -6
Does this mean inventory is down 42% in 2 months? So far so good (perhaps)....now how about -2 and -6? WTF?
[quote](note that a 216% decrease in a place like jacumba represents a difference from 6 to 19 properties) [/quote]
I almost get this, but isn't going from 6 to 19 an INCREASE?
But then again in the table you have "Jacumba 216.6667% 0 12 " and now you have 0 12....
SORRY IT MAKES NO SENSE.
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 09/04/2008 8:21 PM |
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sorry - I was typing too fast to get out the door. You are right - Jacumba is an increase in inventory. The list goes from highest increase to biggest decrease in total properties.
Its location followed by % increase or decrease and then difference in condo units and last difference in STR units.
In the case of sorrento valley, the 42 % decrease in inventory was due to 2 cndos and 6 sfrs less properties on tge market now as compared to july.
Clearer?
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
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| 09/04/2008 8:55 PM |
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I did the similar work yesterday for inventory in SD from 3/9/2008 to 8/31/2008. Here is what for Mira Mesa:
Inventory change = (199-293)/293= -32.1% Significant decrease! Other areas didn't change that much.
Market Overview -- Mira Misa
Week Houses Condos Total
08/31/2008 119 78 199
08/24/2008 122 77 202
08/17/2008 126 76 206
08/10/2008 134 78 215
08/03/2008 135 82 220
07/27/2008 133 82 218
07/20/2008 142 82 227
07/13/2008 141 80 224
07/06/2008 142 82 227
06/29/2008 143 84 230
06/22/2008 144 87 233
06/15/2008 143 89 234
06/08/2008 145 93 239
06/01/2008 144 97 241
05/25/2008 148 94 243
05/18/2008 148 100 249
05/11/2008 144 103 248
05/04/2008 143 102 246
04/27/2008 143 105 249
04/20/2008 147 108 256
04/13/2008 154 109 264
04/06/2008 156 108 265
03/30/2008 161 111 272
03/23/2008 167 115 282
03/16/2008 175 117 293
03/09/2008 176 116 293
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 09/05/2008 9:15 AM |
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| mira mesa, carlsbad (92011), clairemont, and san carlos - basically decent sfr around 400k neighborhoods are selling. |
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restless
Posts:12
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| 09/05/2008 6:03 PM |
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| I would be interested to know where in Carlsbad (92011) you are finding these 400k properties. |
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stevemetro
Posts:6
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| 09/05/2008 6:30 PM |
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| Guys...MAJOR QUESTION...when you are figuring "inventory changes", are you noting that when decreases occur, that it could be from expiration of listings,,,or peoplpe who have decided to rent their properties.....it is not "necessarily" a positive statement about the market...check out todays SD UNION (terrible paper) business section for some interesting info. |
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 09/05/2008 8:06 PM |
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| Steve - I personally am watching overall trends in zipcodes. Undeniably, an inventory reduction can be for all the reasons you mention in addition to actual sales. HOWEVER, regardless of "why", when supply dimishes, it influences future transactions. |
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