sxasher
Posts:8
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| 09/04/2008 9:05 PM |
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"He predicted that San Diego prices would drop another $75,000 from their present median level, which would reduce them to their December 2001 level of $287,000. Currently, the median price is off nearly 30 percent from its all-time peak of $517,500, set in November 2005. "
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080819-9999-1b19housing.html
More interesting things in the article... |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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wilson
Posts:541
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| 09/04/2008 9:56 PM |
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Brian,
Stop being so mean. You would probably drive over the median strip to run down a little old lady.
hehehe |
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 09/05/2008 9:29 AM |
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Brian is not mean in the slightest. I think actually he is quite a generous soul advising (over and over and over again!) those who have been conditioned to leverage themselves to the max to think for themselves a bit.
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wilson
Posts:541
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| 09/05/2008 1:53 PM |
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| P.S. See his riddle. I think he was trying to make a point about MEAN prices vs. MEDIAN prices. (the two operative words in my response). |
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 09/05/2008 1:59 PM |
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| sorry wilson - i'm pretty obtuse sometimes. I take much at face value rather than look for hidden meanings. I need to be more clever or something. thanks for the wake-up call. |
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jpinpb
Posts:1450
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| 09/05/2008 5:15 PM |
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I have trouble w/this statement: "The market has improved because housing prices have fallen about 32 percent from their peak, while incomes have continued to increase. "
What incomes have continued to increase?
And
"Southern California benefits from a strong export market" What are we exporting - besides jobs? |
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PolarBearKing
Posts:161
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| 10/08/2008 8:11 AM |
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Bump....
So how far down will we go until we hit the "bottom"?
I think we may be pretty close. Most likely will go down a little more but how much is anyones guess. It will be flat at best for at least another decade.
I think the only way out is inflation. The "Rescue Plan" (i.e., Bailout) will lead to MASSIVE inflation. While allowing home prices to stabilize (on paper) it will allow the rest of the folks to "catch up". Time to fire up the printing press. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 10/08/2008 10:04 AM |
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I see a lost decade like Japan.
It's not the end of the world and the Japanese still enjoy a very high standard of living. Real roperty prices in Japan are still lower today than 1989. In 1989 the Nikkei hit a high of nearly 39,000. It's now under 10,000.
Actually Japan had a lost 2 decades already. I anticipate a lost decade for us (rather than 2 or 3 decades) because we still have the advantage of population growth and household formation.
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rentingman
Posts:280
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| 10/08/2008 10:54 AM |
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PolarBear
I remember having a discussion with one of the most prominent real estate borkers in DT in early 2006 and he predicted flat prices. Here is the thing about predicting flat prices. If the equivalent rent is a fraction on the sales price (all costs minus tax benefit) then a purchaser is making a lifestyle decision. They will not generate capital gains from their purchase but they will need to pay $1,000 or more per month to live in the house plus tens of thousands of dollars to buy and sell the home. Lets just say I would rather take a vacation, buy a luxury car, or buy a big TV than spend money like that.
So then what has to happen? There has to be a belief prices will rise (see the knife catchers) to generate sales and increasing prices or prices will fall. One day in the future people (other than Brian and me) will actually start to utter comments like are you crazy buying a DT condo. The purchases will only occur once there starts to be no brainer decision when compared to rent. Prices will fall until they equilibrate and may even overshoot. |
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PolarBearKing
Posts:161
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| 10/08/2008 12:08 PM |
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Brian, I agree with everything except the part about population growth. Why do you think that our population will grow? Families are having less kids today then ever. Baby Boomers are getting old and will start to expire. Along with the poor economy that will decrease the amount of migrant workers (both legal and illegal) coming to our country.
I forsee a declining population in our near future. Sure when Obama wins the election we'll get lots of low wage earning refuges from Iraq, but otherwise I can't imagine why anyone else will want to come here.
As far as the housing market is concerned, I predict even more supply and less demand as there become more multi generational families living under the same roof because of the bad economy forcing children to move back home with their parents and/or poor health/widowed Baby Boomers moving back home with their children. This is another factor that is rarely discussed when considering the future of the RE market. |
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Meldavis78
Posts:3
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| 10/12/2008 12:15 PM |
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| PBK, I've heard a saying about human nature in general...The rich make money and the poor make babies. I believe there is some truth to that comment. I can definitely see an increase in population. |
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Eugene
Posts:258
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| 10/12/2008 12:47 PM |
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Our population will grow for the same reason why the population of European Union is growing. High minority birth rate + chain immigration.
You may think that life's tough here. Even at the bottom of the recession, it will be downright pleasant, compared with quality of life of the middle class in Guadalajara or Monterrey. Poor economy may slow down the flow of illegals. Legal immigrants will keep coming.
It's the lesser of two evils. If you don't let immigrants in, you eventually become the nation of retirees, and there won't be enough working-age people to provide services to those retirees (Japan). If you do, your country quickly goes through a demographic shift (EU).
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wilson
Posts:541
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| 10/12/2008 1:00 PM |
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Please show me the last time period that US population declined.
...or SD population declined.
POlpulation is ever-increasing. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 10/12/2008 8:58 PM |
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http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20060316-9999-1n16pop.html
The surprising reversal of the county's long-standing population gains is revealed in U.S. Census Bureau estimates released today showing thousands more people leaving the county than moving in from other parts of the state and elsewhere.
While the county's overall loss of population was 1,728 between July 2004 and July 2005, the more telling number is the net exodus of 43,126 people, many of them who likely headed up Interstate 15 to Riverside County, where housing prices are still considerably lower than in San Diego.
“This is pretty stunning,” said demographer Ed Schafer of the San Diego County Association of Governments. “The net out-migration (domestically) is so powerfully high. That's the story. Riverside (County) is just the opposite. Here you have the coastal counties with all these people leaving them but the counties just to the interior have all these people moving in.” |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
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| 10/12/2008 10:09 PM |
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Article from 2003 about population is too old. Here are newer ones:
1. State could hit 60 million by 2050 (July 10, 2007)
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070710/news_1n10forecast.html
2. Calif. population nears 38 million, up 11.5 percent since 2000 (December 19, 2007)
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/state/20071219-1754-ca-calif.population.html |
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
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| 10/12/2008 10:15 PM |
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2000-2007 county population estimation data from U.S. Census Bureau
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/SAFFPopulation?geo_id=05000US06073&_state=04000US06&pctxt=cr
by ranking:
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GCTTable?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US06&-_box_head_nbr=GCT-T1-R&-ds_name=PEP_2007_EST&-_lang=en&-format=ST-2S&-_sse=on
by alphabetic
http://factfinder.census.gov/servlet/GCTTable?_bm=y&-geo_id=04000US06&-_box_head_nbr=GCT-T1&-ds_name=PEP_2007_EST&-_lang=en&-redoLog=false&-format=ST-2&-mt_name=PEP_2007_EST_GCTT1R_ST2S&-_sse=on |
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
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| 10/12/2008 10:19 PM |
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GCT-T1-R. Population Estimates for SD county
2000 2,825,752
2001 2,870,023
2002 2,908,091
2003 2,932,802
2004 2,938,822
2005 2,941,658
2006 2,948,362
2007 2,974,859
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