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ilivehere
Posts:128

09/05/2008 9:44 AM	Alert
I'm so confused, what to do now? Fire up those keyboards... Signonsandiego.com has this interesting article today. "Drawing on data from National City Corp. in Cleveland, Global Insight said San Diego single-family resale housing, which had a median price of $349,300 in the second quarter, was 17.2 percent undervalued, based on household income and prices. In the second quarter of 2005, single-family housing, then with a median price of $505,900, was 39.1 percent overvalued. In national terms, San Diego ranked as the 29th most-overvalued market in 2005 and, most recently, the 33rd most-undervalued in the ranking of 330 metro areas. The rankings are based on price-to-income ratios, mortgage rates and historical trends in each metro area. An area is deemed undervalued when the value is at least 15 percent under the fair value and deemed extremely overvalued when it is at least 35 percent over the fair value."

LoonyQT
Posts:894

09/05/2008 10:00 AM	Alert
Total geek alert - but "sdscientist" has done some interesting valuation analysis San Diego Home Price Index Yes - there are some "undervalued" pockets in San Diego based on case schiller data and current economics. Depends on what you want and where you want it. I personally think that Americans in general need to be taught to think for themselves a bit more. I have a funny personal anecdote... my kiddos, ages 5 & 7, were getting some good saturday-school-with-mommy time. They got their allowances for the week and both were really itching to spend it on crap. So, I asked them what they want and where they want to get it. My son is totally into backugans (sp?) and doesn't have any so we went to Target to find out how much they are. He is now saving for his $23.79 with tax wish list item. My daughter on the other hand decided to go to a garage sale where she negotiated some stuff for a quarter, and then proceeded to get some stuff for free because she's so darn cute (if I say so myself!). Getting to the point, we were in the costco gas line and talking about consumerism. I was telling them that just because somebody has something or because they want something, they need to be prudent and "not be sheep". I explained how sheep, while very nice animals, are stupid and follow herd mentality. In places like Ireland, if one goes over the cliff then the whole flock can plunge to their demise if not for sheepdogs coralling them to safety. So, do you want to be a sheep or a sheepdog I asked my children...

78TTop
Posts:88

09/05/2008 10:12 AM	Alert
"So, do you want to be a sheep or a sheepdog I asked my children..." ha ha ha Thanks. You've made my day!

ilivehere
Posts:128

09/05/2008 10:15 AM	Alert
loonyqt- the title is just to get attention, i don't really mean it. i'm born and raised here and have seen it go up and down. i just like to see everyone's imput. But thanks for the "just because everyone else is jumping off the bridge, doesn't mean you do it too!" analogy... It sure is interesting how so many people making a living predicting where the stock market is going and what the real estate industry is doing can just say whatever they want and have no consequence. They are all starting to sound like san diego weather reporters. Stock market dropped 4% in one day this week and the housing market has dropped 30% in hardest hit area over 2-3 years. I'm going to go bury my money in the backyard in a folgers coffee can. cheers

Brian
Posts:2210

09/05/2008 10:16 AM	Alert
Posted By LoonyQT on 09/05/2008 10:00 AM and then proceeded to get some stuff for free because she's so darn cute That has always been the way of the world. She's learning fast. ;-)

LoonyQT
Posts:894

09/05/2008 10:21 AM	Alert
80' and sunny - yay!!! folgers, not starbucks? good for you! ;-) ilivehere - I know you were just stirring the pot. Me too. What's that great fable - stone soup? Perhaps at the end of the day, we'll all share a nice meal and good conversation together helping the individual who first pulled out the pot and threw a stone in it...

ownhomeinSD
Posts:163

09/05/2008 10:27 AM	Alert
Interesting, being a sheep or a sheepdog ... think it, everyone.

ilivehere
Posts:128

09/05/2008 10:30 AM	Alert
loonyqt_ by the way what the heck are you doing giving a 5 and a 7 year old allowance? Things must be really good in your neighborhood. Since you were so quick to give a life lesson I feel as though I should give one back. I once asked my father for a allowance for mowing the lawn and everyday home chores. His response was "you got dinner last night, slept in a bed, had breakfast this morning and you got on a school bus this morning because i pay taxes that paid for the gas and the drivers salary". You might want to tell your kids that story the next time they ask for a allowance. just go play ball with them I'm sure that would make them more happy then a trip target for backyardigans (it is a tv show, just in case you never took the time to sit down with them to watch to see what their interested in)

LoonyQT
Posts:894

09/05/2008 10:40 AM	Alert
ilivehere- I am extremely blessed. I thank my lucky stars for who I am and what I have (when I'm not suffering cognitive dissonance not "owning" a house). :-) since I actually like the way I teach $$ in this household - I will further explain to you that allowance is not a regular occurance. I used the moniker for convenience. Sometimes I offer my kids money for specific jobs or accomplishements because I think it is important to foster a work-ethic beyond a household responsibility/obligation ethic. I absolutely agree with what your dad taught you - I've said many similar things as well! :-)

ownhomeinSD
Posts:163

09/05/2008 10:42 AM	Alert
Being sheeps, in my view, just like taking one as all and thought all is equal to one and then following ...

LoonyQT
Posts:894

09/05/2008 10:48 AM	Alert
ooo - I was so busy responding to the allowance dig that I missed the time dig... no, no, no - it's NOT backyardigans as we don't watch tv very often in this house. http://www.bakugantoystore.com/ Further my shopping is generally limited to vons or costco so the only reason I went to Target was to give my 5 year old a goal for proper money management/saving. He needed to pick it out, bring it to the register for a price scan, get the receipt for the price scan with sku, and put it in his money box to remember what he is saving for. Get it - goals? saving? accomplishment? Sure, it's a stupid ass toy - but it's important to him. He learns the value of money a bit. Just like mommy. She has the goal to buy a house, a nice house in a nice neighborhood. She is saving her money to have the purchasing power to make it happen when the time is right.

LoonyQT
Posts:894

09/05/2008 10:52 AM	Alert
"Being sheeps, in my view, just like taking one as all and thought all is equal to one and then following ..." wow - that's deep. so deep I don't even profess to get it!!! And I thought I was being philosphical today! ;-)

LoonyQT
Posts:894

09/05/2008 11:02 AM	Alert
OK boys and girls (being cute, not dimunitive - there IS a difference) - here's the link that started this whole thread for your quick reading pleasure Is San Diego Undervalued? article Another quote from the article, “A metro area like San Diego has, in a sense, fallen too much,” said James Diffley, who directs Global Insight's regional services group. But he cautioned that prices could drop an additional 10 percent over the next year before they level out and start climbing again by 2010. Diffley cited the continued influx of foreclosures on the market, the weak economy, and tougher lending standards that will make it difficult for buyers to get mortgages." Thanks for sharing the news, I really do appreciate the acquisition of more information to further my personal quest. And as I suffer being "underbid by a cash buyer" and hope that the escrow on a property I'm pretty interested in falls through, I remind myself to live in the present more and that it is more about the journey than the destination. (trying hard to stay postive, folks!!) -lqt

Goingup?
Posts:150

09/05/2008 11:27 AM	Alert
The stock market tanking the other day will once again force the FED to LOWER rates. Oil prices will continue to drop, making inflation a secondary concern. OPEC let their greed get the best of them and there's simply no way the cat will get back in the bag. "Drill now" and "energy independence" are here to stay and even 50 dollar oil won't stop the movement. Electric cars will dominate the landscape in 5 years, wind and nuclear will overtake coal for electric production. Bottom line: The US gov wants real estate prices to go up, and with inflation back in the bag the FED has the all clear signal to make it happen.

LoonyQT
Posts:894

09/05/2008 11:42 AM	Alert
Our poor country is such a mess right now... :( There is too much economic uncertainty in general and too many variables (foreclosures, presidential election, stagflation, the war) to make re values go up anytime soon. Maybe it will bounce along a bottom of sorts instead of continuing to drop so precariously. The winter will be very telling...

ilivehere
Posts:128

09/05/2008 8:52 PM	Alert
Loonyqt- All in good fun and I like you can take a joke. I only post this type of stuff because I'm saving all the replies to see in 2 years who was right and who was wrong. I know I'll be wrong on just about everything because my wife tells me "that I don't know anything". I will probably have the same outcome here but it's always fun to hear people's opinion that somehow turn into fact before the end of the post.... I really think what you said about the economy is probably right on point. I also believe until the pendulum swings back from where the banks have put it in regards to lending money(to qualified buyers) will have a big impact on this market. I do believe that the nicer neighborhoods will not go down much more. I'm seeing 30 offers on foreclosures by the way, not high priced REO's but investment property which is very interesting. There is still a group of people out there that must of been sleeping on their money who are grabbing these assets who think real estate is the way to go. Like I said, I don't have all the answers, but I do like good conversation. cheers and have a great weekend

deejayw
Posts:2

09/06/2008 3:00 PM	Alert
Posted By LoonyQT on 09/05/2008 10:00 AM In places like Ireland, if one goes over the cliff then the whole flock can plunge to their demise if not for sheepdogs coralling them to safety. Is this relevant to just Irish sheep or are sheep of other nationalities liable to be suicidal as well?

tpc
Posts:498

09/06/2008 4:58 PM	Alert
DJ-surely the sheep were imported from England. Its the sheep dog that is Irish-don't you know.

jackjack
Posts:155

09/06/2008 8:17 PM	Alert
Posted By LoonyQT on 09/05/2008 10:00 AM Total geek alert - but "sdscientist" has done some interesting valuation analysis San Diego Home Price Index Yes - there are some "undervalued" pockets in San Diego based on case schiller data and current economics. Depends on what you want and where you want it. LoonQT, I clicked on your link, but did not see the undervalued pockets that you are referencing? I do not think that the link you provided identifies any "undervalued" pockets of SD.

LoonyQT
Posts:894

09/07/2008 7:37 PM	Alert
jackjack - you gotta scroll halfway down the page to find this: Low and middle tiers are quite reasonably priced. If this were January, I'd probably call the bottom. But this is June, and we have record-shattering numbers of defaults in the pipeline, and these defaults will mature into REOs during fall and winter, when real estate activity is traditionally low. Also, interest rates have gone up considerably in the last month. Higher interest rates wouldn't yet be reflected in June closings. I think there's still potential on the downside. Interest rates are about as high today as they were in August-September of '02 (except jumbos). If we assume that houses were fairly valued back then, and add 3% average annual inflation, we get this for current valuations: Carmel Valley, 4S, Scripps Ranch: 40% overpriced Carlsbad, Encinitas: 36% overpriced Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos: 28% overpriced (except for lower-end pockets where you can get by without a jumbo) Mission Trails (Del Cerro, Allied Gardens, Tierrasanta): 6% to 22% overpriced Clairemont, Mira Mesa: 3% underpriced Eastlake, Otay Ranch: 8% underpriced (except for high-end parts of 91914) Chula Vista, Imperial Beach: 9% underpriced North of 78 (east Oceanside, north Vista): 10% underpriced 54-94: 15% underpriced

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