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ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
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| 09/05/2008 9:09 PM |
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I don't think it is generally aware that # of foreclosures is # of trustees deeds (TDs). Many peopl thought it is # of properties involved. But actually, two loans for one property means two Deeds of Trust. If a property goes to foreclosure with three loans, it counts three foreclosures. I think recently foreclosures mainly from homes puchased during peak time. Huge numbers of buyers for those peak homes have more than one loans. Plus, those did refinance and took money from their "money machines" have two or more loans. This is why we see foreclosures increase dramatically from late 07 through 08. But # of properties involved may be just about half # of foreclosures. Right?
Here is the raw data about San Diego County Foreclosure Statistics year by year (1974-2008) and month by month. You can see 10000 NODs per year is usual in 90's.
San Diego County Foreclosure Statistics
Year all Deeds Trust Deeds Notices of Default Trustee's Deeds
1990 123,395 139,736 8,005 1,078
1991 111,155 130,775 10,925 2,113
1992 124,461 175,683 12,059 3,827
1993 128,765 185,082 12,521 5,110
1994 113,655 118,906 10,754 5,338
1995 95,661 90,544 11,251 5,267
1996 106,124 103,896 12,037 5,994
1997 116,881 123,146 10,085 5,136
1998 145,064 196,440 7,766 3,345
1999 148,250 178,907 5,962 1,989
2000 141,138 159,572 5,472 1,380
2001 158,717 259,700 5,726 826
2002 191,327 343,649 5,986 909
2003 223,087 455,332 5,167 566
2004 209,892 379,742 4,260 553
2005 200,447 333,203 5,080 559
2006 164,946 257,720 10,294 2,065
2007 133,358 180,638 22,194 8,416
2008(Jan-July) 69,661 66,780 23,454 11,560
and # of foreclosures (# of tructees deeds) filed in July '08 vs. July '07 for communities in San Diego
Foreclosures: # of trustees deeds (TDs) filed in July '08 vs. July '07
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
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wilson
Posts:541
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| 09/05/2008 9:48 PM |
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Ooooooooooooooooooooops
Cut number of foreclosures roughly in half? |
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tpc
Posts:498
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| 09/06/2008 9:44 AM |
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| Own-I think you analysis is only partially correct. If there is a second mtge on the property and the first mtge files for a f/c that does not mean that the second also files a f/c. If the 2nd is already underwater, they forfeit their ability to sue the borrower if they foreclose. Simply put-CA is a ONE ACTION RULE state. You can either f/c (nonjudicial) and lose your ability to sue (prudent course of action for the first mortgagee) or you can sue for non payment and forget about the f/c route (prudent for the second mortgagee). Google ONE ACTION RULE. |
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Dirtcheap
Posts:28
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| 09/06/2008 10:42 AM |
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| ownhomeinSD - its not accurate to say that a property with 3 loans counts as 3 foreclosures. All 3 could file NOD's, although not likely, but only one will foreclose, usually the first, which wipes out the other two. This would just get recorded as one Trustee deed. Each trustees deed is a single foreclosure, there is no reason to cut that number in half. What has changed dramatically, and your numbers show, is the number of properties that avoid trustee's sales. From 2001 to 2005, only 10-15% of the properties that went into default, went to sale. Your 2008 number shows it at close to 50%, and i think currently that number is tracking closer to 70%, which is a major problem. Also, depending on how those numbers are reported, there is a serious lag between the filing of the NOD and the actual trustees sale. |
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
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| 09/06/2008 11:59 AM |
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| I know I won't completly right. Of course, f/c # may not be decreased by half but would be significantly if it is right. 3 loans count 3 f/c is just an example. But if 3 NODs could be filed in this example, why we can't expect a huge decrease in NODs that appeared everywhere we talk about forecloures (government, TV, media, etc.). Also, doesn't matter if ONE ACTION RULE ( non-judicial foreclosure, or a judicial foreclosure) works or not, because we are not talk about what kind of liabilities the owner would have. Either non-judicial foreclosure or a judicial foreclosure is a foreclosure. I don't know if county records one TD or more TDs for one property. Maybe someone here can call the county to confirm. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 09/06/2008 12:12 PM |
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Posted By Dirtcheap on 09/06/2008 10:42 AM
ownhomeinSD - its not accurate to say that a property with 3 loans counts as 3 foreclosures. All 3 could file NOD's, although not likely, but only one will foreclose, usually the first, which wipes out the other two. This would just get recorded as one Trustee deed. Each trustees deed is a single foreclosure, there is no reason to cut that number in half. What has changed dramatically, and your numbers show, is the number of properties that avoid trustee's sales. From 2001 to 2005, only 10-15% of the properties that went into default, went to sale. Your 2008 number shows it at close to 50%, and i think currently that number is tracking closer to 70%, which is a major problem. Also, depending on how those numbers are reported, there is a serious lag between the filing of the NOD and the actual trustees sale.
You're got it right.
ownhomeinSD is grasping at straws (perhaps to justify the value of his own home).
The number of NODs might be a little overstated, but the number to Trustees' Sales are accurate. Only one lender does the foreclosure on one house, as there can't be more than one.
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:163
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| 09/06/2008 12:34 PM |
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Posted By Brian on 09/06/2008 12:12 PM
ownhomeinSD is grasping at straws (perhaps to justify the value of his own home).
What you mean for this kind of personal attack? You take it for yourself.
I know what I found is not a good news for some or many people. But if it is a fact and people haven't aware of it, why should not I mention it?
As I said before, I bought a nice house recently at great price. I can't be more happy for it. It is my primary home which I am going to live in it for my life time. I don't care how the market is going on for this home. In fact, I am looking for a second home to buy. You should know what it means. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 09/06/2008 1:07 PM |
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Sorry for being a little impatient here. That issue has been talked about ad nauseum on Piggington. The consensus is that even adjusted for growth in the labor force, the foreclosure rate is nothing to rejoice about. Rich Toscano is good at periodically updating the charts.
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Brian
Posts:2210
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