ilivehere
Posts:128
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| 10/10/2008 8:59 AM |
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Has anyone heard the latest stats on unsold inventory in San Diego? I just heard that the unsold inventory is at 6.8 months, I believe a normal market is 6.3 months worth of inventory. Can anyone confirm this?
Have a productive day |
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jpinpb
Posts:1450
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| 10/10/2008 9:03 AM |
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| The only thing I can confirm is that NODs are down the past week, this in line w/the new law that says banks have to give and extra 30 days. The zip codes I've been watching are mixed. Some inventory slightly down, but mostly hovering around the same for the past 9 months. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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jpinpb
Posts:1450
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| 10/10/2008 9:35 AM |
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| There may be cancellations and that could explain the decreased inventory. Places get removed b/c it's considered sold, but it's not really sold if it gets cancelled. Maybe they will relist down the road. I can confirm of the zip codes I watch, many places relisting, though the ones relisting have been on the market for a while and are getting a new MLS #. Are we seeing more stealth, this time not banks holding but BOM inventory from cancelled escrows? |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 10/10/2008 9:57 AM |
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i agree with you jpinpb.
There are lots of removed listings. But I expect those to come back later this winter or the spring.
I believe that every upside-down property is potential for sale inventory.
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jpinpb
Posts:1450
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| 10/10/2008 10:11 AM |
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| Thanks for posting that story, Brian. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 10/10/2008 10:18 AM |
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People are waiting 'til the spring for the Greenspan
recovery.
Mark my words. It ain't gonna happen, not in San Diego. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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| 10/10/2008 10:25 AM |
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Imagine 9.16% of homeowners in some sort of default!
Excerpts from the article:
About 75.5 million U.S. households own the homes they live in. After a housing slump that has pushed values down 30 percent in some areas, roughly 12 million households, or 16 percent, owe more than their homes are worth, according to Moody's Economy.com.
Among mortgages on one- to four-family homes, 9.16 percent were a month or more overdue or were in foreclosure in the second quarter, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That compared with 6.52 percent a year before and was the highest level since the association began such surveys 39 years ago.
Housing markets don't tend to turn around quickly. The price slump in California in the early 1990s, for instance, was a long grind. According to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes, Los Angeles prices peaked in June 1990 and didn't bottom until March 1996. They didn't get back to their 1990 peak until 2000. |
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jpinpb
Posts:1450
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| 10/10/2008 10:41 AM |
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| I remember all too well the '90's. It aged me. That was a long slump and you're correct that it didn't get better until 2000. And we had an internet bubble and capital tax gains of up to 250k per person, 500k couple, plus lowered rates to help the market improve. Don't know what'll do it this time. All the tricks were already pulled back then, including the "special" financing. We are so deep in quicksand now. Throwing the 700 billion at the problem was a rope, but no one holding it on the other end. That 700 billion isn't going to cut it. It's going to sink in the hole. I don't know what'll pull the economy out, but the domino effect is spreading quickly worldwide. Every analogy applies. Put bubblegum in a hole in a dam will hold for a second before water starts pouring out again. They can try to delay the inevitable. That's all it is. A delay. Sooner or later the rooster's coming home. JMO. I'm sure others disagree and that's fine. Those watching it unfold, and aren't in denial, know different. This bubble exceeded all previous bubbles. |
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PolarBearKing
Posts:161
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| 10/11/2008 5:07 PM |
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jpnpb, I totally agree with you.
The stock market needs to just keep on falling until it is solvent again. I predict the DOW at less than 5K, but I have no reason for that number, it's pretty random. My point is that we just need a good cleansing.
Housing will be next. We need to just get it over with. This artificial propping up of the market (i.e., $700B "Rescue Package") has only given some hope to those in need. Time to just rip that bandaid off and move forward with true recovery. Until then, we are only gonna be prolonging the inevitable. |
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jpinpb
Posts:1450
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| 10/11/2008 5:19 PM |
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| PBK - I've always said we can't have a recovery until we hit bottom. You got to get to the bottom of the hill before you can go back up it. We have to take care of all the debt before we can see any economic stimulus be effective. I look back at the '90's and it was scary and I was stressed and struggling. No real bailout then compared to now. I was unscathed in the end, but sure did learn my lesson. Relieved to have survived that. Made sure not to be stupid this time around. Glad I'm not in that place now or in the shoes of some of these people who went aboard the Merrysville train to hell. This will be a prolonged crash and recovery. |
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twocents
Posts:78
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| 10/14/2008 5:11 PM |
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| jpinpb- you don't have to go to the bottom of the hill in order to go to the next. just stop halfway, then tell your congressman/senator/governor that the hill is too steep. sit down, have the picnic lunch you brought, and some wine as well. by the time you're finished the gov't will have have taken the top of the hill you wanted to climb, and dumped it into the valley into which you were going to go. nice smooth sailing from then on! |
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jpinpb
Posts:1450
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| 10/14/2008 5:32 PM |
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| I'll need a cellar of wine - and I hardly even drink anymore! I'm thinking invest in alcohol. That's what helped people through the depression last time. ;) |
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twocents
Posts:78
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| 10/14/2008 5:38 PM |
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| luckly for me that in addition to growing my own vegetables i brew my own beer! |
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jpinpb
Posts:1450
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| 10/14/2008 5:50 PM |
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| 2C - LOL. I may have to go back to Italy and hang out in some of those wineries, train to make my own wine. You may be on to something! |
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