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coastrenter
Posts:105
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| 06/30/2009 3:21 PM |
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From the Wall Street Journal:
Home Sales Didn't Soar in San Diego: Data Had Errors, Group Says
The California Association of Realtors expects to make sharp downward revisions in its recent monthly reports of soaring home sales in the San Diego area, Robert Kleinhenz, deputy chief economist of the trade group, said in an interview. Those revisions will mean modest downward revisions in statewide sales, he added.
The revisions are likely to be announced in late July, when the Realtor group reports home sales for June. The problem resulted from a glitch in data from a multiple-listing service in San Diego, Mr. Kleinhenz said. He said a change in computer systems used there resulted in incorrect data being sent to the Realtor association over the past year or so.
Thomas Lawler, an independent economist in Leesburg, Va., who tracks home sales nationwide, raised questions about the San Diego data in a report last week. Mr. Lawler noted that the numbers reported by the Realtors vastly exceeded those from MDA DataQuick, a research firm in La Jolla, Calif., and other sources.
The California Realtors have reported that San Diego sales in April were up about 63% from a year earlier. Mr. Kleinhenz said that is expected to be revised downward to a gain of about 20%. For May, the group reported an 89% increase in sales in San Diego; that will be slashed to about 6.5%, the economist said.
As a result, he said, the state-wide sales gain for May -- reported last week as 35% -- also will be revised down, though it probably will remain above 30%, Mr. Kleinhenz said.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124638992043975185.html |
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creative_cpa
Posts:834
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| 06/30/2009 3:30 PM |
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| ownhomeinSD is going to be veeeery busy redoing all his numbers for Mira Mesa. |
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:1068
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| 06/30/2009 3:51 PM |
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"Thomas Lawler, an independent economist in Leesburg, Va., who tracks home sales nationwide, raised questions about the San Diego data in a report last week. Mr. Lawler noted that the numbers reported by the Realtors vastly exceeded those from MDA DataQuick, a research firm in La Jolla, Calif., and other sources."
I have been collecting data from MDA DataQuick and SDLookup. I believe that MDA DataQuick is a reliable data source. SDLookup has a little bit less sales number due to some missing update but it didn't create data like other source creative_cp used with almost double inveventory than SDL inventory. |
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jpinpb
Posts:4538
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| 06/30/2009 4:06 PM |
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| There is actual more inventory than SDL has due to the option of realtors to not show their listings online. One of the places I made an offer on is still not listed on line and still doesn't have a sign. It is in the MLS. Unfortunately, the numbers are not as transparent as we'd like. We've already had to contend w/stealth and properties that banks lag on foreclosing, properties that banks lag on listing and now we also have properties that are not showing up on most websites just b/c realtors opted out. |
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92101Resident
Posts:152
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| 06/30/2009 4:21 PM |
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Am I the only one to think that perhaps it was done on purpose? Afterall, why wouldn't the multiple listing service not inflate the sales figures to their advantage! It continues to prove that nothing from the real estate "professionals" can be trusted!
It's still amazing that for most people a home purchase is the largest transaction of their life yet it's often handled by the folks who often time have no education/qualifications asides from the diploma mill "real estate license". |
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:1068
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| 06/30/2009 4:35 PM |
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Posted By jpinpb on 06/30/2009 4:06 PM
One of the places I made an offer on is still not listed on line and still doesn't have a sign.
Wow! Even jpinpb think IT IS TIME TO BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
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werewolf
Posts:41
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| 06/30/2009 4:37 PM |
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| If you did this at your job, chances are you would be fired. |
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wmcjjohnny
Posts:470
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| 06/30/2009 4:45 PM |
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Posted By ownhomeinSD on 06/30/2009 4:35 PM Posted By jpinpb on 06/30/2009 4:06 PM
One of the places I made an offer on is still not listed on line and still doesn't have a sign. [/quote]
Wow! Even jpinpb think IT IS TIME TO BUY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Ownhome inSD, Even if jpinpb is in the market for a home, please spare us the Mira Mesa infomercial. It is tired and treadworn. J |
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jpinpb
Posts:4538
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| 06/30/2009 4:55 PM |
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I'm sure those paying attention are aware that I am not on this board for entertainment, although ownhome has proven to be quite amusing. I've been tracking properties, NODs, foreclosures and sales. And not relying solely on SDL, unfortunately. I occasionally see something that makes sense and have made offers. Unfortunately, nothing has panned out yet. Or maybe fortunately, b/c I end up coming across something I like better for what is about the same as a previously made offer. My last offer is on a short sale. Not holding my breath. I'm in no hurry. I really like where I rent, so I can wait out whatever games the players conjure up. I rode the bubble up and can ride it down. No bottom anywhere in the areas I'm looking, but fragility is very apparent. If I can pick up something that's priced right that makes sense, great. Those are scarce where I'm looking for now.
As far as whether it's time to buy, I have continually said that is really dependant on so many factors and personal circumstances. Generally speaking, I do not believe we are at bottom. Only some areas are close to bottom. Judging from my recent checks of NODs, the distressed properties continue to mount and I don't believe in fairy tales so I don't think they're all getting mod'd. |
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jmail_3451
Posts:25
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| 06/30/2009 5:02 PM |
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Any one know if this will impact the Case-Shiller data?
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:1068
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| 06/30/2009 5:18 PM |
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Posted By jmail_3451 on 06/30/2009 5:02 PM
Any one know if this will impact the Case-Shiller data?
Impossible. Do you think any median would believe there is 89% increase in sales in San Diego? I didn't see any median even reported their data. Maybe some blog sites (I won't waste time to read those blogs) like to use those unreliable data. |
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:1068
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| 06/30/2009 5:30 PM |
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Posted By wmcjjohnny on 06/30/2009 4:45 PM
Even if jpinpb is in the market for a home, please spare us the Mira Mesa infomercial. It is tired and treadworn.
J
Say those words to jpinpb and wish her get a home soon.
Posted By jpinpb on 04/07/2009 3:13 PM
"I'm glad to provide fodder for your boring lives. Ridicule all you want. It has no affect on me. I find your attack mechanisms quite amusing myself. I think when you criticize the fact that Brian and I monitor the market it seems like it must be some kind of threat to you guys. How dare we not run out and buy! LOL. If I had a house, I doubt I'd spend so much time on a real estate blog. But whatever makes your day. |
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ownhomeinSD
Posts:1068
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| 06/30/2009 5:58 PM |
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Now back to the article:
"The California Realtors have reported that San Diego sales in April were up about 63% from a year earlier. Mr. Kleinhenz said that is expected to be revised downward to a gain of about 20%. For May, the group reported an 89% increase in sales in San Diego; that will be slashed to about 6.5%, the economist said.
As a result, he said, the state-wide sales gain for May -- reported last week as 35% -- also will be revised down, though it probably will remain above 30%, Mr. Kleinhenz said."
Let's check DataQuick reports (http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/2009/News/California/RRCA090619.aspx)
"An estimated 37,967 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was up 4.8 percent from 36,215 in March and up 21.9 percent from 31,150 in April 2008."
"An estimated 39,051 new and resale houses and condos were sold statewide last month. That was up 2.9 percent from 37,967 in April and up 18.3 percent from 33,024 for May 2008."
With above comparison, I won't think the article from http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124638992043975185.html has any credibility.
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jpinpb
Posts:4538
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| 06/30/2009 6:03 PM |
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I'm not running out and buying. There is a big difference between making an offer and buying. If I wanted to buy, I certainly could. There are places for sale that I do not make offers on b/c the price is ridiculous and a joke. I monitor the market b/c I intend to someday buy and I'm not going to purchase something w/out carefully evaluating many factors. If in my search I see something that works w/in my criteria, then I will make an offer and see what happens.
And yes, I stick by that statment that if and when I buy a place, I seriously doubt I'd continue to be on this blog. I could only see myself here again if I were to be in the market to purchase again. I have far many better things that I could think of doing than dig up old posts people wrote. |
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cbr600f4i2
Posts:478
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| 06/30/2009 6:34 PM |
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| I see the b_stards are waiting til July to make the announcement, no doubt to take advantage of the summer. Classless, unethical, !#$%s! |
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creative_cpa
Posts:834
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| 06/30/2009 9:05 PM |
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| I smell a lawsuit. |
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wmcjjohnny
Posts:470
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| 07/01/2009 8:54 AM |
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Posted By ownhomeinSD on 06/30/2009 5:30 PM Posted By wmcjjohnny on 06/30/2009 4:45 PM Even if jpinpb is in the market for a home, please spare us the Mira Mesa infomercial. It is tired and treadworn. J [/quote] Say those words to jpinpb and wish her get a home soon. Posted By jpinpb on 04/07/2009 3:13 PM
"I'm glad to provide fodder for your boring lives. Ridicule all you want. It has no affect on me. I find your attack mechanisms quite amusing myself. I think when you criticize the fact that Brian and I monitor the market it seems like it must be some kind of threat to you guys. How dare we not run out and buy! LOL. If I had a house, I doubt I'd spend so much time on a real estate blog. But whatever makes your day. To be honest Eugene, jpinpb is a grown woman and when she buys she buys. She will get a great deal trust me. She has said in the past, as have I, that buying a home is not a priority in my life bit if I end up getting an amazing deal at some point then I might just pull the trigger on a deal. Who knows? What I am unwilling to do is get duped by the banking and RE industry as they are currently operating because every indicator I see in other market sectors says the housing rebound is years and not months away. I would prefer to have my 20% down actually realize minimal negative retreat based on a market that is still ripe for continued and even more drastic correction. Not a bear, just not an impulse buyer that believes the hype from the stealth RE folks that post on here and other sites. |
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creative_cpa
Posts:834
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| 07/01/2009 3:16 PM |
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| JTR ripped SANDICOR a new one in his blog today. |
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CoastalDweller
Posts:61
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| 07/01/2009 3:42 PM |
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| Link? |
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jpinpb
Posts:4538
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| 07/01/2009 4:25 PM |
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| I think SDL may not allow a link to it. |
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