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Subject: The housing crisis is over!!

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Author Messages
jpinpb
Posts:1180
05/13/2008 3:17 PM Alert 
Sparky - I wish people would buy. The only properties that are selling quickly are the ones reduced. The sooner those distressed properties sell, the quicker we have a new low comp. I thank every knife-catcher that buys for helping this market continue it's decline. They are brave for helping our economy You are right. The longer it takes for people to reduce, the longer the recovery.
Sparky
Posts:121
05/13/2008 3:20 PM Alert 
I apologize for the double post..it seems that this site was "hung up" for a bit, and the first submit did not appear to take. I eagerly await the numerous replies that I will surely get to the previous post...as its "just what some on here do."
Sparky
Posts:121
05/13/2008 3:25 PM Alert 
ahhhhhhh, there's one now :) Surely didn't take long. Why do you continue to use the derogatory term of knife-catcher, and all that it entails? I know that it offends people who are buying properties now, including me.
frelow
Posts:9
05/13/2008 3:32 PM Alert 
"if you think prices will continue to drop forever, you are wrong!"

Suggesting that people should wait to buy is not the same as saying the sky is falling. You are correct that "if more people buy today, it slows the downturn." But buying into a slowing downturn will still lose you money. I am looking for a good time to buy, but am convinced (in part from information dispensed in these forums) that now is not that time. If you believe now is the time, then more power to you. If you are going to try to convince me, I will listen but do not begin your posts with statements like that above.
frelow
Posts:9
05/13/2008 3:48 PM Alert 
jpinpb: I'm not sure that people buying in this market are helping the decline. If the market were to seize up...no buyers...that would speed up the decline. I doubt that anyone is buying to help the economy, they probably think they are buying at a great time, just like the people who bought last summer and fall. Maybe they are right this time.
lee
Posts:78
05/13/2008 3:55 PM Alert 
I tend to agree that the market is turning around in areas. Just go out there and attempt to bid on a detach home in a lower price range... you will see what you are up against. Many people are buying right now. I disagree that the foreclosure inventory will outpace people buying. People ARE buying these properties.
jpinpb
Posts:1180
05/13/2008 4:00 PM Alert 
Sparky - I use the term "knife-catcher" in a very loving way. Don't be offended. It takes someone w/intestinal fortitude to perform the act of buying a house when the market is depreciating. BTW - I don't tell people not to buy. I tell them to buy if it makes sense to them financially, if they really love the place, if they are ok w/losing money on it (buying now, they will) and "IF" they can afford it.

frelow - every time someone buys a place that is reduced, they help bring down the comps. Prices inch down every time someone buys something that is reduced. Trust me. It would speed up the process. People see a place that sells when reduced. They have no choice. If they want to sell, they have to reduce. Otherwise they can be stubborn and sit on it - for a long time. Any many do.

But as said on this board, who has more staying power, someone that wants to buy, or someone that needs to sell. There are far more many desperate sellers than buyers. Judging from what the banks are holding on to, a lot of pent up supply.
jpinpb
Posts:1180
05/13/2008 4:02 PM Alert 
lee - do yourself a favor and read this for some true numbers:
http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/13/84/
jpinpb
Posts:1180
05/13/2008 4:05 PM Alert 
Alos, my goal is not to say people should wait to buy. It's to inform others of what's happening out there, and make a not of properties of interest to me.
jakob
Posts:361
05/13/2008 4:05 PM Alert 
Forums like this are 3 parts bullsh*t, 2 parts entertainment, and 1 part education. Just like the proportions in the perfect margarita.
jpinpb
Posts:1180
05/13/2008 4:08 PM Alert 
Can't call BS on sales history, sales inventory, sale prices, NODs and REOs.
jakob
Posts:361
05/13/2008 4:12 PM Alert 
JP, don't get me wrong. I'm with you. Prices DO have far to fall. I rent a house in PB for half of the landlord investor's monthly nut. And I don't have a great deal. I pay market rent of 1750 on a 800 sq ft 2/1 house. Until it makes financial sense to buy, I agree prices will descend.
Brian
Posts:1937
05/13/2008 4:14 PM Alert 
jpinpb is right, buyers create new comps for appraisals. Comps are closed sales, not listings. So when a new comp closes, the appraisers have to take it into account and discount surrounding properties accordingly.

It takes great skill to be a knife-catcher at the circus show. In real estate a knife-catcher is one who gets badly wounded, financially speaking. I generally use that word only what I have the data to back it up. Sparky, what do you call someone who bought at an inflated price and ends up selling at a lower price? Knife-catcher is the best word (I wonder what they call it in German).

I'll stop using knife-catcher when the Realtors stop using "sellers will entertain." I love the entertainment I get everyday on SDlookup -- for free.

jakob
Posts:361
05/13/2008 4:20 PM Alert 
It is interesting that inventory has stopped growing. Some people I think that's mainly two things: 1. REOs are starting to get priced right, and selling super fast. 2. People are taking their homes off the market in order to "wait out the storm". That's stealth inventory that will come back. All in all, until inventory starts moving strongly negative, prices will continue moving south.
Brian
Posts:1937
05/13/2008 4:25 PM Alert 
Posted By jakob on 05/13/2008 4:20 PM
1. REOs are starting to get priced right, and selling super fast. 2. People are taking their homes off the market in order to "wait out the storm". That's stealth inventory that will come back. All in all, until inventory starts moving strongly negative, prices will continue moving south.




Houses are NOT selling super fast as evidenced by sales data (from OCrenter's website).

Date: Inventory (sales)

01/2007: 17,109 (2,772)___01/2006: 16,161 (2,898)
02/2007: 17,544 (2,863)___02/2006: 17,262 (3,035)
03/2007: 18,638 (3,218)___03/2006: 18,261 (4,367)
04/2007: 20,122 (3,436)___04/2006: 19,480 (3,974)

01/2008: 20,581 (1,826)___01/2007: 17,109 (2,772)
02/2008: 20,848 (1,954)___02/2007: 17,544 (2,863)
03/2008: 21,222 (2,108)___03/2007: 18,638 (3,218)
Anyone has April's numbers?
jpinpb
Posts:1180
05/13/2008 4:29 PM Alert 
jakob - I said on another thread 1844 Law got sent back to bank and it's still not in the MLS and that's after it defaulted in October 2007. Multiply that by all the others they are holding.

I thought knife-catcher is someone who bought a place that was reduced, but while it's still in the process of reducing. I have to say that stocks are more difficult to predict, but w/the ample information about houses, the NODs and foreclosures and watching the market, there is just no way to say you had no idea the market was going to continue to decline. Every time I make an offer, I price it low enough to know if it declines further, I can deal w/it b/c I know it's going to decline. Just how much.

I have to say if I saw the one on Jackdaw, I would not have lowballed. 2000 prices. Can't beat that w/any stick. Still kicking myself on that. Just hold solace that the lucky buyer brought down the comps and others on that street that want to sell will have to consider that.
jakob
Posts:361
05/13/2008 4:33 PM Alert 
Brain, check out the stats here. http://www.bubbleinfo.com/journal/2008/5/13/foreclosure-agents.html. These are REOs and they are really flying off the shelves. I believe this is the primary thing holding down inventory levels.
Sparky
Posts:121
05/13/2008 4:40 PM Alert 
I would have to say that anyone that resorts to name-calling or belittles others that do not share their views has a low self-esteem with an unmet need to feel more powerful (better, bigger, stronger, smarter - your adjective goes here) than those who they ridicule.
jpinpb
Posts:1180
05/13/2008 4:41 PM Alert 
There are foreclosure numbers here: http://mrmortgage.ml-implode.com/2008/05/13/84/
jakob
Posts:361
05/13/2008 4:43 PM Alert 
Inventory stabilization is very visible here:

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanDiego-Carlsbad-SanMarcos/
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