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CJ
Posts:52
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| 05/14/2008 4:54 PM |
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Southland home sales log tepid gain; record price drop
April 15, 2008
La Jolla, CA--- The onset of spring did little to thaw Southern California's semi-frozen housing market: The seasonal boost in sales between February and March was less than half its normal level and a record low. The weak start to the home buying season also saw another record dive in the median sales price, the result of depreciation, slow sales for higher-priced abodes and growing sales for discounted homes fresh out of foreclosure.
A total of 12,808 new and resale houses and condos sold in Los Angeles, Riverside, San Diego, Ventura, San Bernardino and Orange counties in March. That was up 18.8 percent from 10,777 the previous month but down 41.4 percent from 21,856 in March 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Over the past 20 years Southland sales have risen by an average of 38 percent between February and March. Last month's 18.1 percent increase from February was the lowest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1988.
March was the seventh consecutive month in which sales have fallen to the lowest level on record for that particular month. On average, March sales have been about twice as high - 25,407 - as last month.
Foreclosure resales - houses sold after being foreclosed on – continue to dominate many inland neighborhoods. More than one out of three Southland homes that resold last month, nearly 38 percent, had been foreclosed on at some point in the prior year. This time last year such sales were only 8 percent of the market. At the county level, foreclosure resales ranged from 28.8 percent in Los Angeles County to 56.4 percent in Riverside County.
"We continue to believe a lot of people who could be buying or selling right now are opting to sit tight until they sense we've hit bottom. Often what we're left with, especially in inland areas, are sales driven by foreclosure or the threat of it. Although prices have fallen off their peaks in most places, the magnitude of the decline continues to vary widely, with the largest discounts concentrated in markets rife with foreclosure resales," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick president.
In recent months, foreclosure resales typically sold for about 15 percent less than other homes in the surrounding area. When these foreclosure resales dominate a market, accounting for more than half of all sales, they tend to tug home prices down by an extra 5 to 10 percent when compared with communities where foreclosure resales are less common.
The median price paid for a Southland home was $385,000 last month, the lowest since $380,000 in April 2004. Last month's median was down 5.6 percent from February's $408,000, and down a record 23.8 percent from $505,000 in February 2007. That peak median of $505,000 was reached several times last spring and summer.
The sharp and sudden drop of the Southland median price reflects a combination of factors, mainly depreciation, especially in areas hammered by foreclosures, and a big shift in the types of homes selling. Since last August, when the continuing credit crunch hit, sales have plunged for more expensive homes financed with "jumbo" mortgages, which until recently were defined as loans over $417,000.
Sales financed with these larger loans, which the credit crunch made more expensive and harder to get, accounted for just 15 percent of Southland sales last month, down from about 40 percent a year ago. It is unclear how much home sales might be affected this spring and summer by the recent increases to the limits for so-called conforming loans and FHA loans.
DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts.
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CJ
Posts:52
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| 05/14/2008 4:55 PM |
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Another Jump in California Foreclosure Activity
April 22, 2008
La Jolla, CA.--The number of California homes going into foreclosure jumped last quarter to its highest level in more than 15 years, as the market continued to works its way through declining home values and a pool of at-risk mortgages that were originated in 2005 and 2006, a real estate information service reported.
Lending institutions sent homeowners 113,676 default notices during the January-to-March period. That was up by 39.4 percent from 81,550 the previous quarter, and up 143.1 percent from 46,760 for first-quarter 2007, according to DataQuick Information Systems.
Last quarter's number of defaults was the highest in DataQuick's statistics, which go back to 1992.
"The main factor behind this foreclosure surge remains the decline in home values. Additionally, a lot of the 'loans-gone-wild' activity happened in late 2005 and 2006 and that's working its way through the system. The big 'if' right now is whether or not the economy is in recession. If it is, the foreclosure problem could spread beyond the current categories of dicey mortgages, and into mainstream home loans," said Marshall Prentice, DataQuick's president.
Most of the loans that went into default last quarter were originated between August 2005 and October 2006. The median age was 23 months, up from 16 months a year earlier.
On primary mortgages, California homeowners were a median five months behind on their payments when the lender started the default process. The borrowers owed a median $11,474 on a median $346,750 mortgage.
On home equity loans and lines of credit, homeowners were a median eight months behind on their payments. Borrowers owed a median $3,512 on a median $60,000 credit line. However the amount of the credit line that was actually in use cannot be determined from public records.
DataQuick, a subsidiary of Vancouver-based MacDonald Dettwiler and Associates, monitors real estate activity nationwide and provides information to consumers, educational institutions, public agencies, lending institutions, title companies and industry analysts. Notices of Default are recorded at county recorders offices and mark the first step of the formal foreclosure process.
Although 113,676 default notices were filed last quarter, they pertained to 110,392 homes. The difference is the result of some borrowers defaulting on multiple loans (e.g. a primary mortgage and a line of credit).
Last quarter's default numbers were a record in almost all of the state's 58 counties. The notable exception being Los Angeles County, which was particularly hard hit by the recession of the early 1990s. During last quarter, the county's 20,339 defaults represented 94.8 percent of its peak quarter back in Q1 of 1996, which saw 21,444 defaults.
On a loan-by-loan basis, mortgages were least likely to go into default in San Francisco, Marin, and San Mateo counties. The likelihood was highest in Merced, San Joaquin and Stanislaus counties.
Of the homeowners in default, an estimated 32 percent emerge from the foreclosure process by bringing their payments current, refinancing, or selling the home and paying off what they owe. A year ago it was about 52 percent. The increased portion of homes lost to foreclosure reflects the slow real estate market, as well as the number of homes bought during the height of the market with multiple-loan financing, which makes 'work-outs' difficult.
Multiple-loan financing peaked in Q4 of 2006 at 60.9 percent of all financed home purchases. Last quarter it was 15.9 percent.
Trustees Deeds recorded, or the actual loss of a home to foreclosure, totaled 47,171 during the first quarter. That's the highest since DataQuick began tracking Trustees Deeds in 1988. Last quarter's total rose 48.9 percent from 31,676 in the previous quarter, and jumped 327.6 percent from 11,032 in first quarter 2007. In the last real estate cycle, Trustees Deeds peaked at 15,418 in third-quarter 1996. The all-time low was 637 in the second quarter of 2005.
There are 7.9 million houses and condos in the state, DataQuick reported.
Foreclosure resales have emerged as a significant market factor, accounting for 33.1 percent of all California resale activity last quarter. A year ago it was 3.2 percent. Foreclosure resales vary significantly by area, from 5.1 percent in San Francisco County to 66.7 percent in San Joaquin County.
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Sparky
Posts:236
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| 05/15/2008 1:01 AM |
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Freddie Mac, seen as a housing market barometer, brightened the mood on Wall Street by raising its growth outlook and unveiling a plan to raise new capital to support the beleaguered home loan market........
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080514/bs_nm/markets_stocks_dc
Sparky
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"There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics."
Mark Twain 1904, Disraeli
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Brian
Posts:4665
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| 05/15/2008 12:23 PM |
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Posted By Sparky on 05/15/2008 1:01 AM
Freddie Mac, seen as a housing market barometer, brightened the mood on Wall Street by raising its growth outlook and unveiling a plan to raise new capital to support the beleaguered home loan market........
If the housing crisis is over, then why do we need a government agency to prop it up? It's pretty obvious that housing is not supporting itself.
I wonder if the housing contractors who are generally Republicans will switch to the Democrats in droves, in hopes of a housing bail-out.
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anonymouse
Posts:127
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| 05/15/2008 2:48 PM |
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Posted By Sparky on 05/15/2008 1:01 AM
Freddie Mac, seen as a housing market barometer, brightened the mood on Wall Street by raising its growth outlook and unveiling a plan to raise new capital to support the beleaguered home loan market........
oh goody! i was starting to get worried, but now that it's all wrapped up nicely in a euphemistic, feel-good package, I can turn Oprah back on and see what she says I should buy! That poor, beleaguered home loan market - they need the federal government to come be their new mommy!
mmmmm. Nothing like a nice big plate of wishful thinking served up by the most biased party possible. |
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ThinkPositive
Posts:64
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| 05/19/2008 1:34 PM |
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The economy is weak but has sidestepped a recession, according to a key forecasting gauge that rose for the second straight month in April, the Conference Board reported on Monday.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080519/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc |
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ThinkPositive
Posts:64
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| 05/19/2008 5:39 PM |
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Need a new mortgage? Call Uncle Sam!
The Bush administration says it has the answer to the housing crisis: a program offering cheaper loans.....................
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/19/real_estate/FHASecure_saves/index.htm?postversion=2008051909 |
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Brian
Posts:4665
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| 05/19/2008 6:00 PM |
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Sounds like they're trying to pull another fast one.
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No down payment? No problem
Loophole still allowing risky mortgages by disguising money as a gift
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24580917/
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jpinpb
Posts:4538
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| 05/19/2008 6:30 PM |
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| Still, though, w/FHA loans, you have to "prove" you can make the payments, have the income to substantiate it, show all debt, etc. etc. |
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sxasher
Posts:47
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| 05/19/2008 6:50 PM |
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11:25 a.m. May 19, 2008
Southern California homes sales jump 22 percent in April
Interesting reading if you view the reader comments at the bottom of the article:
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20080519-1125-bn19housing.html
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ThinkPositive
Posts:64
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| 05/20/2008 4:42 PM |
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5/20/08 - Mortgage rescue advances in Senate............................
"Congress moved a big step closer Tuesday to expanding government efforts to help at-risk homeowners."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/20/news/economy/dodd_shelby_deal/index.htm?postversion=2008052015 |
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LoonyQT
Posts:1007
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| 05/20/2008 5:13 PM |
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ARRRGGG - NO BAILOUTS!!!
Just wait until the Fall - after some more foreclosures slam the market with resetting HELOC loans... we aren't close to the bottom for the 500-1M market. |
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ThinkPositive
Posts:64
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| 05/21/2008 12:18 PM |
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5/21/08 - Homes are biggest bargain since 2004......
Falling prices opened up home buying for many more Americans.
http://money.cnn.com/2008/05/20/real_estate/big_improvement_in_home_affordability/index.htm?postversion=2008052013
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ScottSD
Posts:163
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| 05/21/2008 12:33 PM |
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| sweet deal. 25% of houses in SD county are now affordable to the median earner. while that's a huge improvement over 9%, i'm not ready to invite over the neighborhood kids and hang up a piñata. |
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creative_cpa
Posts:834
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| 05/15/2009 4:14 PM |
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Posted By ThinkPositive on 05/19/2008 1:34 PM
The economy is weak but has sidestepped a recession, according to a key forecasting gauge that rose for the second straight month in April, the Conference Board reported on Monday.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080519/bs_nm/usa_economy_dc
One year old post. I couldn't resist bumping it up. It's about as wrong as one can get. |
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jpinpb
Posts:4538
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| 05/15/2009 4:29 PM |
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| Eventually they'll be right. But we still have a ways to go. |
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nostradamus
Posts:110
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| 05/15/2009 4:32 PM |
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| LOL you guys like to stir things up... |
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XBoxBoy
Posts:43
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| 05/15/2009 4:39 PM |
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| It really is great when you see these old posts. It's really amazing how people just could not accept the possibility to things could go badly. Absolutely amazing. |
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DT.SD
Posts:320
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| 05/15/2009 4:59 PM |
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| Awe man, you got me all excited. I thought Fox News had finally “called it” and we were all clear to start buying again!!! I don’t do anything until media tells me to… |
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DT.SD
Posts:320
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| 05/15/2009 5:33 PM |
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Home price fall near bottom!!!
Is May the prediction month? I sure hope we are not back on this thread next May pointing out the lack of prescience this UCLA economist had. The odds are sure better this time around though…
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/may/15/1b15sdecon201510-home-price-fall-nears-bottom-repo/
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