Asher
Posts:64
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| 07/17/2008 6:20 PM |
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| Surprisingly it looks like rental prices are on the decline. Of course you'd think they're "edging up" if you read this UT article, but when you adjust for inflation prices actually fell over 1.5% year over year in real terms. As of last month (latest data available) inflation was calculated at a whopping 5.02% year over year, while rents crept a mere 3.50%. Must be the slowing economy. |
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dchestney
Posts:164
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| 07/18/2008 8:21 AM |
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| The most recent CPI number is probably an outlier (at least for the next 6-12 months). The full-year CPI increase for 2008 will probably be very close to 3.5%. But for most renting advocats who post messages here, the more relevant comparison is rent cost+interest earned on "saved" money vs. monthly total cost of owning. |
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613867
Posts:62
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| 07/18/2008 9:10 AM |
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| DC-AC here- Quit making sense. |
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Asher
Posts:64
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| 07/18/2008 10:13 AM |
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Good point about the full year CPI; so far, the first half of this year is 4.24%, still well above the rental numbers, and the trend over the past quarter has been substantial increases in inflation. In real terms apartment rents are clearly on the decline.
Putting the rent vs buy discussion aside for a moment, I find this interesting because I would've expected demand for apartments to be increasing as people voluntarily or involuntarily give up their condos and get into leases.
My non-expert speculation is that the slowing economy is reducing what tenants are willing and able to pay for rents; I'd bet that people are taking steps (e.g. getting roommates, college students living at home, etc.) to reduce their costs which of course would put downward pressure on rentals.
Unfortunately this data only comes from apartment complexes and does not incorporate house rentals, which would be interesting to see some stats on as well to get the full picture. |
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BigTrace
Posts:194
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| 07/18/2008 11:23 AM |
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| I agree that I think a bunch of people are getting roomates and cutting down their costs of living thereby easing demand which, as economics goes, drives down prices. I also think there is more of an outflow of people from the San Diego area but I do not have any data to support that. I just listen to people and lots of them say they're packing it up because it's just too expensive to live here. I can't say that I blame them but I wouldn't want to live in Tornado alley either. |
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rwsinmissionhills
Posts:311
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| 07/18/2008 12:16 PM |
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A good way to find out where the population flows are going is to check out UHaul trailer one way rental data.
Was anyone around here during the energy bust in the 80s? People left CO and TX in droves and many of them came here and Uhaul trailers from those states started piling up here: So much so that I remember people could get deals on rentals going back to those states just to replenish the supply. |
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 07/18/2008 12:27 PM |
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| where do you find uhaul info, rw? |
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rwsinmissionhills
Posts:311
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| 07/18/2008 1:17 PM |
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In the 80s, I just looked at the different Uhaul places and you could see the license plates from those states (and on the cars at many local apartment complexes) (I wasn't doing any kind of formal study). I think it was also in the newspapers in the 80s that Uhaul would pay people or give discounts to get their inventory back to states that were losing population.
Just for fun, you might try calling a uhaul place or two and see if the working people there have any anecdotes about business picking up for one way rentals heading out of SD or out of state. |
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Brian
Posts:2210
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jakob
Posts:473
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| 07/18/2008 1:26 PM |
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To get an idea of the population migration you can just check the one-way rental rates on uhaul.com, like Mr. Perry did here.
Flint (Michigan) to Altanta: $2312
Altanta to Flint: $272 |
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rwsinmissionhills
Posts:311
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| 07/18/2008 1:49 PM |
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Posted By jakob on 07/18/2008 1:26 PM To get an idea of the population migration you can just check the one-way rental rates on uhaul.com, like Mr. Perry did here. Flint (Michigan) to Altanta: $2312 Altanta to Flint: $272
Great find. Thanks.
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jakob
Posts:473
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rwsinmissionhills
Posts:311
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| 07/18/2008 2:03 PM |
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Even better! More thanks. |
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harpca
Posts:82
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| 07/19/2008 8:41 AM |
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| Apartment rentals have to go up to adjust and offset the higher utility costs of maintaining the complex such as landscaping, gym and swimmingpool. House rentals are usually cheaper than apartments but you don't get privacy and have to share kitchen and livingroom and sometimes bathroom. And of course you don't get a gym living in a house. They are really apples & oranges. |
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jackjack
Posts:155
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| 07/19/2008 9:00 AM |
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Posted By jakob on 07/18/2008 1:26 PM To get an idea of the population migration you can just check the one-way rental rates on uhaul.com, like Mr. Perry did here. Flint (Michigan) to Altanta: $2312 Altanta to Flint: $272
I think that some agency keeps a formal record of inward/outward migration to and from San Diego. I remember one back a few years ago. If you look hard enough, you can probably find it.
If I remember correctly, when I looked at it a few years ago, it was the first time in 8 years that migration to San Diego was less than outward migration. I do not know if the trend has continued. |
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 07/19/2008 9:38 AM |
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great finds - did you notice coeanside on the uhaul top growth cities list?
U-Haul Top U.S. Growth Cities*
January - December 2007
With 5,000-10,000 Families Moving
RANK CITY %GROWTH
1. EAST STROUDSBURG, Pa. 17.51%
2. SANTA ROSA, Ca. 10.96%
3. MORENO VALLEY, Ca. 9.94%
4. OAKLAND, Ca. 7.70%
5. WEST PALM BEACH, Fla. 7.52%
6. DES MOINES, Iowa 5.98%
7. COCOA, Fla. 4.61%
8. SALT LAKE CITY, Utah 4.30%
9. SANTA MONICA, Ca. 3.88%
10. DURHAM, N.C. 3.80%
11. BOISE, Idaho 3.68%
12. KATY, Texas 3.02%
13. SAINT PAUL, Minn. 2.93%
14. SPOKANE, Wash. 2.72%
15. PALM SPRINGS, Ca. 2.63%
16. LAKELAND, Fla. 2.59%
17. NEWARK, N.J. 2.39%
18. MADISON, Wis. 2.14%
19. LANCASTER, Ca. 1.62%
20. LOUISVILLE, Ky. 1.39%
21. CHARLESTON, S.C. 0.83%
22. EUGENE, Ore. 0.57%
23. SAN BERNADINO, Ca. 0.26%
24. JERSEY CITY, N.J. 0.24%
25. OCEANSIDE, Ca. 0.12% |
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 07/19/2008 10:10 AM |
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OK - today's 26' truck prices from the uhaul site: (net migration is OUT according to my findings)
San Diego to El Paso TX - 1342
El Paso to San Diego - 542
SD to W. Palm Beach, FL - 3313
W Palm Beach to SD - 2109
SD to Phoenix, AZ - 297
SD to Phoenix - 265
SD to Boise, ID - 1774
Boise to SD - 1021
SD to Chester, NJ 1595
Chester to SD 2949
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LoonyQT
Posts:894
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| 07/19/2008 10:11 AM |
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| whoops -, it's Phoenix to SD that's 265 |
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lurknomore
Posts:270
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| 10/06/2008 4:13 PM |
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Oh? Today's WSJ (page A3) reports ". . . strong apartment occupancy AND RENT GROWTH in markets including San Francisco, Boston, SAN DIEGO and the Pacific Northwest."
Do renters have the wherewithal? Time will tell? |
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b_e
Posts:2
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| 10/06/2008 7:00 PM |
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| FWIW, my one-bedroom in west Clairemont is going up from 1056 to just over 1100 in December, so there's a raise slightly under 5%. |
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