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wilson
Posts:675
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| 08/14/2008 10:42 PM |
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FRAUD:
Take a look at that listing Brian chose at 3325 Canon. I smell a rat, too. 9/2006 sales price of $835,000; tax assessment of $301,000. Look at the photos of that shack. I can't believe the REO thinks that the current listing of $506,000 is a realistic price. Who would ever pay half a million for a 1200sf ugly shack? Can anyone tell me with a straight face you would shell out anything more than $300k?
You could probably put an a second story, remodel and have a view. To do that, you'd be basically have to get it cheap. I'll go out on a limb and say this won't sell very quickly. |
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justmyopiniontoday
Posts:38
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| 08/15/2008 8:10 AM |
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The place on Canon is a dump. If any of you have driven by this place you would see that it is on a very busy street, 0 privacy, 0 backyard, No view potential if a second story was added. I'm leaning toward what others are saying on mortgage fraud. This place in now way represents a snapshot of point loma.
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Brian
Posts:2653
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Brian
Posts:2653
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| 08/30/2008 10:47 AM |
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Posted By Brian on 08/12/2008 2:00 PM The coastal areas, where "nice" houses were previously thought to be immune to declines in value, are showing signs of cracking.
3335_Whittier_St_San_Diego_CA_92106
Wilson, I posted this house as a "crack" meaning a "watch"
Why do you think that they listed at $899,000 (down from $1,029,000), near the purchase price of $876,520 in 2005?
1) Desperation. They cannot pay the bills anymore and are looking for a greater sucker to bail them out.
2) No seller who isn't desperate would "throw away" 3 years of mortgage payments + remodeling costs + emotional attachment.
I think it's important to know seller motivations and wait out their wherewithal to hold on. So that is why I put this on my "watch" list. Certainly there's a crack of will, on the part of the seller, to wait out the market.
Like they say "the market can be stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent."
What was my point. You have to anticipate what the price will be. You'd be a fool to take prices at list value. In war (even in gambling) you have to anticipate the enemy's next move. The ability to anticipate is what separates winners from losers.
The house is now removed from the MLS. Let's see if/when it comes back under purchase price.
MLS-080044510-3335_Whittier_St_San_Diego_Ca_92106
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wilson
Posts:675
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| 08/30/2008 11:23 AM |
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Look at your original post that refers to this Whittier property and "declines in value". There has been no demonstrated decline in value, and thus no crack.
Also look at the next response from a person thanking you for exposing crack. People are thinking you are exposing declines in value. They are being misled.
They are not thinking these are just properties to watch, Why not post every property on the MLS as we should be watching all? Or are we to be selecting the worst of the worst declines and say they accurately represent the market.
I have been monitoring the closed sales. Most properties in the areas I look at have been closing at about 5% under list. Some close above list, especially repos that are listed under market to generate activity.
Brian,
Want to take up my GLC wager? |
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Brian
Posts:2653
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| 08/30/2008 11:42 AM |
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Posted By wilson on 08/30/2008 11:23 AM
Brian,
Want to take up my GLC wager?
I do believe that we will see the less desirable units at GLC under $200k. I don't know when that will happen but I think that it's only a matter of time. Not by Spring 2009, but it will happen.
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Happenings
You're going to be told lots of things.
You get told things every day that don't happen.
It doesn't seem to bother people, they don't—
It's printed in the press.
The world thinks all these things happen.
They never happened.
Everyone's so eager to get the story
Before in fact the story's there
That the world is constantly being fed
Things that haven't happened.
All I can tell you is,
It hasn't happened.
It's going to happen.
—Feb. 28, 2003, Department of Defense briefing - Donald Rumsfeld
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wilson
Posts:675
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| 08/30/2008 11:56 AM |
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I don't doubt that GLC 1-beds will fall that far eventually, but your disciple (who ran back to poppa for reinforcements) is drunk on the bear stories you have been spinning. That's the dangerous part. People are taking you seriously.
As for me, time to take a little break from SD lookup postings.
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!! |
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Brian
Posts:2653
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| 08/31/2008 10:59 PM |
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Posted By wilson on 08/30/2008 11:56 AM
That's the dangerous part. People are taking you seriously.
It's dangerous only if prices go up. If prices continue to drop for the next 6 months, those who listen to me and wait win big time.
Yes, the sky is falling!! Maybe that's peanuts to you, but when prices drop 30% and wipe out the savings of millions of Americans, then yeah, the sky is falling!
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wilson
Posts:675
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| 08/31/2008 11:22 PM |
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No, what is dangerous is next year after prices bottom out that these guys looking for blood in the streets will miss the buying opportunity and see it in the rearview mirror, waiting for prices in premium areas to fall to percentage drop levels like Chula Vista and National City. Premium areas will not be falling 30%more (nor have they fallen that far already in premium areas).
You have delusion of grandeur if you think millions of Americans are following your lead. I thought you were only thinking you were leading a hundred or so poor souls. |
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jackjack
Posts:159
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| 08/31/2008 11:37 PM |
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Wilson,
I seriously doubt that once the bottom hits, prices will rise immediately. This will be a very prolonged bottom, in my opinion. Look at the Case-Shiller index during the last downturn. The bottom lasted for quite some time. I tend to side with Brian. You should just wait, and not jump in. If you want to treat your home as a sound investment, then once you know for sure that prices have stabilized (and you will be able to tell through a superficial examination of the Case-Shiller index), you should jump in - not a moment sooner.
The smart money is going to Charlotte, North Carolina. If you don't believe me, look at the Case-Shiller index there - it has actually gone up, not down. I actually own a few places in there, and they have done quite well. You get cash flow, plus the benefit of being able to sell at a profit during these times - hard to find these areas nowadays! If you are going to buy in SD, then I would wait.....buy in North Carolina, and then sell when you are ready to buy in SD - maybe in 1-2 years. That is the best move you can make if you want to maximize your money and you do not succumb to the "I have to own a house in SD" mentality" or the "you should only invest in your backyard." I just love the fools that push the latter mantra! You should invest where it makes sense. |
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Brian
Posts:2653
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| 08/31/2008 11:54 PM |
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Posted By wilson on 08/31/2008 11:22 PM
You have delusion of grandeur if you think millions of Americans are following your lead. I thought you were only thinking you were leading a hundred or so poor souls.
I have no delusion of anything. People can buy whatever they want. I just enjoy watching the market.
Like I said before, chances are the buyers out there are listening to their Realtors before they listen to me. The Realtors will get to the wives and convince them how much they need to buy a nest "for the long term."
There are millions of Realtors and other real estate shills out there. I have no illusion that I can match their power to influence the market. I'm just a speck of dust.
The notes that I make about the properties are generally notes to myself so that I can recall the history of the listings when the properties hit the market again.
I forecast the market 6 months to 1 year ahead of time. I don't pretend to see beyond. When I drive a car, I can only see so far. But I watch the road and anticipate the behavior of the nuts so I don't get into accidents.
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Brian
Posts:2653
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Brian
Posts:2653
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| 09/01/2008 12:47 AM |
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| I meant to write that premium properties rose less, percentage wise; so it's only logical that they will drop less, percentage wise. |
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Brian
Posts:2653
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| 09/06/2008 2:50 PM |
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This property may not suffer from price crack -- yet... but the sellers' will and ability to hang-on are definitely cracking. Why else would they "throw way" 3 years of mortgage payments + remodeling costs + emotional attachment + transaction costs?
Like I said before, seller motivation is very important in assessing the value of assets.
801_Ash_St_304_San_Diego_Ca_92101
Purchased 08/02/2005 $1,625,000
Now asking: $1,650,000 |
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Brian
Posts:2653
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ladainian tomlinson
Posts:7
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| 09/07/2008 10:10 PM |
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Keep up the fantastic work Brian. I laugh when I read folks still spewing the "desirable properties aren't gonna fall much" garbage, or the "people are going to wait too long and miss out on the bottom" trash. Do these people know anything about economics, markets, and the history of housing booms and busts? There is ZERO chance of the market stabilizing or appreciating in 2009 with all of the excess inventory and the thousands of foreclosures per month that are still yet to come.
Anyone buying now in San Diego at anything less than a 30% discount is taking a serious risk. The biggest boom in the history of US real estate isn't going to be followed by a 2 year bust. All areas - coastal included - will be hit and hit hard. Anyone denying this is defying logic and supporting a position that desirable areas benefit from booms but don't retract during busts. It's illogiacl. |
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Brian
Posts:2653
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Brian
Posts:2653
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ilivehere
Posts:165
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| 09/25/2008 3:08 PM |
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Glass Half Full...
You couldn't of sold "crack" and made as much money as these people just did in Point Loma...Renting is definitley better for the last 5 years??? Just goes to show you that if you hold your real estate and you buy smart it will pay off most of the time.
4405 Leon Street, Sales Price = $1,075,000, 2Bed 2 Bath, 1200 sq ft. tear down. I will do the math for all of you, $1,075,000-$668,000=$407,000+tax write off= killed it..
08/21/2008 $1,075,000 6y 7m 61% 7%
01/09/2002 $668,000 5m 4% 8%
07/24/2001 $643,500 n/a - -
Who say's it doesn't pay to buy real estate? This cycle will come back around again. A friend bought a REO yesterday in RB for $210,000. The rent will more than cover the mortgage. Great time to be buying if your holding the property for awhile.
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Brian
Posts:2653
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