Brian
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jpinpb
Posts:4532
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| 08/12/2008 6:13 PM |
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| Thanks, Brian. Nice to see you exposing crack beyond downtown :) |
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wilson
Posts:1703
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| 08/12/2008 7:38 PM |
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| Even though they say they put $70k into the place, low of their range it is still priced at $20k more than 10/2005 sales price at the peak. I guess this doesn't look like much of a crack to me. Rather I think it is evidence of the cost not cracking. |
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Brian
Posts:4652
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| 08/12/2008 7:56 PM |
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List Price: $1,029,000 6/23/2008
List Price: $899,000 8/12/2008
10/11/2005 $876,520 Purchase price.
After transactions cost these sellers will be well below what they put into the place IF they can sell.
More likely than not, this place will get foreclosed in which case the sellers lose everything.
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Brian
Posts:4652
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| 08/12/2008 8:51 PM |
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Posted By jpinpb on 08/12/2008 6:13 PM
Thanks, Brian. Nice to see you exposing crack beyond downtown :)
As time goes buy, I'm leaning away from buying Downtown.
why should I buy and pay all the HOA? What for?
A UT article posed this questions: "Will the finished neighborhood contain a mix of interesting people, good restaurants and eclectic businesses? Or will it be a forest of sterile, half-empty high-rises casting dark shadows on a collection of chain stores? " Or tourist traps?
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wilson
Posts:1703
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| 08/12/2008 9:19 PM |
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More faulty logic, Brian. The former listing price is meaningless and simply wishful thinking. If a house I own is worth $500k and I list it at $600k and drop price to $500 (the correct price) is it a "crack?" No, of course not!!!!! It has no meaning whatsoever. The only relevant data is prior sales prices and what the sales price is now. Since there is no sales yet, we use the listing price for analysis.
Looking at the photos, it appears some of their "upgrades" are personal decorating choices that don't really add value. I would expect that the choices they made won't match other peoples' tastes and maybe their upgrades added $35 in value. So the 10/25 purchase price of $876k (peak of market) plus $35k equals about $910k. The low of their listing range is $899k. That differnce of $11k represents a drop in value of just over 1%. Since median price detached SD homes are down 30% over that time period, this property has not cracked at all.
You occasionally make good points but often your analysis is sloppy and just supports preconceived notions. You missed the boat on this one by a large margin!!!
THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!!! THE SKY IS FALLING!!!!!!!!!
Please remember: quality is better than quantity (in posts). |
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hiswelshness
Posts:66
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| 08/13/2008 2:46 AM |
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| And it one comes with a self watering sidewalk and driveway! |
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Brian
Posts:4652
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| 08/13/2008 8:00 AM |
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Wilson, my point here is that house values are dropping.
The necessary adjustments in the market require sellers to go from "winners", to nothing, to "losers." The psychology is very pervasive and one seller experiencing the "hardship" of making a sale affects other sellers in their own transactions. Sellers in other "lesser" neighborhoods have already experienced the pain. It's now the coast's turn.
Desirable Yes, Immune No
A big part of that resilience [of the high tier] has to do with the fact that prices in that part of the market never got so out of whack in the first place. The heavy influence of the subprime mortgage securitization boom led to much larger proportional increases in low-tier home prices than in the high-end markets. This is illustrated in last week's price update, but to put some quick numbers on it: in the five years leading up to the price peak in November 2005, the Case-Shiller low-tier index increased by 144 percent versus a much smaller -- though still enormous in absolute terms -- increase of 88 percent in the high tier. (The middle tier split the difference at 116 percent).
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NCgirl
Posts:347
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| 08/13/2008 8:54 AM |
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That house is really cute. The upgrades I can see from the picture that would stay with the house are the mouldings and the shutters. Shutters for that size house if they did the faux wood (better for coastal areas) are about 3k. The wall mouldings can get expensive, $4-$8 per sq ft...but if you are handy you can do it yourself. My husband did my daughters room and it turned out really nice.
They did not post pictures of the kitchen and bathroom's. Kitchens, bathrooms and landscaping..that stuff get's expensive. |
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wilson
Posts:1703
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| 08/13/2008 9:06 AM |
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Briam,
My point is that the Point Loma house is listed at nearly the identical price it was purchased at the peak. There is no crack. You have proved nothing. The only action on that listing is that they have changed an unrealistic listing price down to a realistic price. That happens in nearly all markets.
Now you say that market never was subject to the sam especulation, so the price correction is not as necessary so prices will be more stable. Again, that changes your thesis that the area is cracking.
Why not just admit that you again picked an example that disproves the point you were making. My guess is that this property is now priced about where it should be and will sell. Prices are sticky and a good property with curb appeal in Point Loma will probably sell for a price near the peak prices of 2005. We'll see if it closes. Any other conclusions is purely unsupported speculation on your part. I hope others reading these posts verify for themselves what you say. If they don't think for themselves, they are in trouble. |
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jpinpb
Posts:4532
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| 08/13/2008 10:33 AM |
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| wilson - that's IF it sells. If it goes back to bank, we will certainly see a further reduction. |
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JSL
Posts:1
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| 08/13/2008 12:55 PM |
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| I have seen this house. it is actually very nice and well kept. There is definitely reasons you see no kitchen pictures. I would say it would take $50-$100k to update kitchen and possibly move some walls. The upgrades were mostly landscaping which looks great but adding value is another question. No true master bath may also hurt this listing. Outbound flights go right over home. I thought they were crazy at $1,029,000 and $899,000 is probably still high considering $876k purchase at peak and the drop in the market the last few years. Foreclosure is unlikely. Agent is also owner and I heard they are either building or have an offer on a place in Santaluz. Will be interesting to see what they get. |
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justmyopiniontoday
Posts:38
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| 08/13/2008 1:21 PM |
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This is a great house but one problem, right smack in the middle of the planes taking off all day. I surprised nobody has touched on this. There are too many nice houses out of flight path or somewhat removed from flight path to buy this house.
Brian,
Please, before anyone comments on homes which may effect the sales price or sway someone's opinon please drive by the house or condo and make a edcucated comment. I would buy that house if I could get past the airlplanes. That is a beautiful neighborhood. |
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wilson
Posts:1703
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| 08/13/2008 1:30 PM |
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if, if, if.........
we deal with what information we have. this is not listed as a short sale or is there an NOD. Assuming it is going back to the bank has no rational basis. People making all sorts of wild assumptions with no evidence is ridiculous. If I assume there is a gold mine under the house it coulde worth $10 million. If I assume a herd of elephants trample the house, it will only be worth the land value. The facts are it is being listed at nearly the price it was bought at the peak in 10/2005. That is the only relevant fact. If it sells for near that, it disproves any cracking and that the market in Point Loma is holding steady. |
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Brian
Posts:4652
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| 08/13/2008 10:35 PM |
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| Time is the father of truth. Time will tell..... |
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wilson
Posts:1703
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| 08/13/2008 11:08 PM |
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Time in immaterial. Simply put: At present there is no evidence to support your assertion that this property has declined in value.
Pure speculation, no beef. |
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Brian
Posts:4652
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Brian
Posts:4652
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wilson
Posts:1703
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| 08/14/2008 7:06 PM |
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Brian,
Congratulations. You're doing a much better job of actually posting properties that actually support the point you are trying to make, especially Canon. Very nice photos on that one. |
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eric3
Posts:45
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| 08/14/2008 10:18 PM |
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Wilson,
I like you...smart AND scrappy.
Now, about all these "Cracks in..." postings.
First of all, when was the last time anyone intelligent was saying coastal areas are immune from any loss, 2006? Everyone knows they will be hit a bit. This is nothing new. As Wilson says, the REAL news is that some of them are still selling at peak levels. That is AMAZING. And no Brian, you can't subtract commissions just to try to force your point.
Second, just a warning that although obviously great fun for some, it is not always even relevant to consider these one off extreme price drops. Many of these are so extreme looking because they are often mortgage fraud cases. I don't know San Diego well enough to be able to spot them, but in my home market, I can spot them easily and there are lots of them. The peak purchase prices were fraudulent and are way out of whack by design. These homeowners are not under water, they are long gone with the cash.
Not sure about any of those specifically posted but I am sure there was plenty of it in SD and those are the ones that will stand out the most when you are simply searching for extreme price drops. Fraud cases are not relevant as data points or as anecdotal examples of a large decline. |
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