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| February 2010 Resale Data Rodeo | Piggington - The median price per square foot was up about 1% in February, but
that's a smaller amount that its January decline. So I would
characterize prices by this measure as continuing to go nowhere, as
they have done since September.
read more
 | | 3/7/2010 1:15:05 AM |
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| The Nuclear Housing Bailout Option | Piggington - A couple of interesting bailout-related items crossed my desk
today. I have given up on trying to keep track of all the
bailouts, but these both relate directly to our beloved topic of shadow
inventory so I thought I'd note them.
First, the White House is trying to ban any foreclosure unless the loan in question has been screened for
HAMP, the government's flavor-of-the-month home loan modification
program. As I understand it, HAMP has been fairly useless, for
reasons I will describe below. But no matter -- an extra
mandatory step to screen every mortgage for eligibility will further
delay the foreclosure process, perhaps resulting in even more delinquent mortgages remaining in pre-foreclosure limbo.
The reason that HAMP and the government's other varied foreclosure
prevention schemes haven't made much of a splash is that they don't
address the main cause of foreclosures: that many homeowners owe more
than their homes are worth.
continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org
read more
 | | 2/27/2010 3:32:44 AM |
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| January 2010 Resale Housing Data Rodeo | | Piggington - The median price per square foot declined between December and
January for both detached homes and condos:
Prices by this measure have really gone nowhere since September
2009. As I noted at the Voice last week, the rally that began in early 2009 has
clearly come to an end.
read more
 | | 2/22/2010 4:13:02 AM |
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| New Foreclosure Activity On the Decline | | Piggington - I haven't focused on new foreclosure activity for a while because
the topic has become somewhat irrelevant, analytically speaking.
The
question is not whether a large "shadow inventory" of foreclosed homes
exists -- it does -- but whether and over what timeframe that inventory will
actually become relevant by entering the market. That being
the case, the question of how fast the shadow inventory might be
growing isn't terribly high on my list of compelling topics.
It is nonetheless at least mildly interesting to note that new
foreclosures, as measured by mortgage default notices, have slowed
substantially.
continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org
read more
 | | 2/19/2010 7:19:14 PM |
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| Shambing Away from Cheapness But Still Milling About In The General Locale of Affordability | | Piggington - Well, I thought the old "Shambling Toward Affordability" title for
this series of articles was a bit pithier but it just doesn't
quite work now that home prices have been rising for the better part of
a year. In any case, regardless of the what we want to call it,
it's time to check
in on San Diego housing valuations as of year-end 2009.
The 2009 home price rally reversed the direction of the shamble, but
it didn't really change the overall picture, which is that San Diego
home prices (in aggregate, of course) are still at middling levels of
valuation.
Here's the price to per capita income ratio:
read more
 | | 1/18/2010 5:05:12 AM |
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| 2008 Predictions | San Diego Market Monitor - It's been an interesting year since my last predictions. For the most part the market performed pretty much as speculated. In retrospect it was pretty easy predict the market selloff. Predicting the bottom might prove a more complex task. At any rate here are my predictions for 2008.
- Prices in the aggregate continue to decrease. The slow deflation of values continues with the distressed properties leading the way.
- The new developments, Electra, Aria, The Mark, SmartCorner and Alta continue to have relatively large ready for sale and unoccupied units that slowly get occupied via sales or rental programs. Back in the "old" days it was normal for a new condominium project to have unsold units that were available for immediate move in. This was why the early phase people got a relative bargain. This relationship got pretty warped during the bubble and to some degree the standing inventory may point to a return of the normal pre-bubble relationships returning which is a good thing.
- A bottom isn't reached in 2008 however relative bargains that have seen most of their deprecation start to become interesting.
- In the broader market the concept of cash flow positive/neutral rental property starts to become more realistic. I'm planning on doing some analysis in this area to see what things are like today and what price action is needed for this to start making sense. If anyone has any specific examples post them or email them over as this may be an interesting topic to revisit over the course of the year.
- Wildcards that could factor significantly into the market include the increase of the conforming loan amounts, recovery or yet another leg down in the credit markets, the prospects of a recession and inflationary pressures driving interest rates higher.
The market will remain worth watching. Downtown will continue to grow in other areas like hotels, rental apartments, office and entertainment which will help create an even better environment that will pair up nicely with reduced prices. | | 2/24/2008 1:21:00 PM |
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| Another La Vita Unit Close to Developer Price | San Diego Market Monitor - La Vita is a middle market property in Little Italy. Built by Intergulf.
Unit #1508 which is a nice northeast view two bedroom recently closed for $525,000, previously sold for over $700,000.
Keep in mind that the developer prices for La Vita were set at least a year before the initial closings took place in early 2005. | | 2/14/2008 7:21:00 PM |
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| 2007 Predictions Revisited | San Diego Market Monitor - I know the blog has been slow lately and I thank those of you that email me privately about the blog and what I've been up to. Doing this has been extremely fun and personally rewarding.
The original mission of proving the market was moving down via posting about the price action of specific properties has been met. I still intend to blog from time to time about specific properties or other items of interest so check back.
It's New Years Eve and there is very little time to update the blog with analysis of last year's predictions before we uncork 2008. Stay tuned for another post on predictions for next year.
The Predictions
1.) San Diego property will continue to decline in value with condos continuing to lead the movement down. This decrease will range from 5-25%. I think it's very safe to say that this value range decrease came to pass for all but a very small portion of unique properties.
2.) Downtown condos will depreciate another 10-25% in another slow and orderly decline similar to how 2006 played out. Quality will be key in terms of holding value.
Again, this also came to pass. Quality condos did fair better than the marginal condos, apartment conversions in particular.
3.) At least one more downtown condo project will go rental before completion. As noted on this blog the former Broadway Lofts condominiums has reverted to a rental project. A potential candidate for going the rental route is Solara Lofts which is an office building conversion project that should be finished by early summer, since sales haven't started yet it may be prudent for them to pull the development off of the market until prices stabilize.
While Solara Lofts did not convert to rentals, the SmartCorner project is advertising new condos as rentals on Craigslist.
4.) The massive number of new urban condos coming will continue to impact price declines in the attached sector of the market, however since many of the developers will decide to carry inventory for 3-6 months after project completion and since the natural tendency for construction projects to take longer than scheduled the inventory increase and price declines continue into 2008.
There are many unsold new developer units on that are not listed for sale as well as new units at Aria and Electra coming onto the market, this prediction while hard to quantify is arguably taking place and as predicted will persist into 2008.
My closing comments for last year:
In summary the decline trend continues for 2007 with a bottom in the market pushed out past the coming year. A significant wildcard are interest rates which could drive a quicker decline if the one two punch of materially higher rates combined with adjustable mortgage resets combines to drive more foreclosure and short sale activity
While interest rates didn't go up much the major credit market problems related to the housing correction did in fact drive short sale and foreclosure activity in 2007 which clearly added to the price declines experienced in 2007.
All in all it's been a very interesting year in San Diego real estate | | 12/31/2007 6:40:00 PM |
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| Four Acqua Vista Foreclosures | San Diego Market Monitor - Over the last day or so foreclosure.com lists four Acqua Vista condos that are end the end of the foreclosure process.
Units 222, 536, 858 and 1106 to be specific.
I think it is safe to say at this point in time that every unit in the building is worth less than the original developer price. | | 11/2/2007 10:35:00 PM |
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| $200K+ Loss on Foreclosed Downtown Condo at Discovery #211 | San Diego Market Monitor - This is a huge loss from the high water mark set in the summer of 2004. Based on the new listing price and the original developer price this property is likely valued at mid to late 2004 prices. I also know that this unit was vacant for probably two years so the "all in" loss on this property is quite substantial. I do think this is a good example of once underutilized "portfolio" property that wasn't being used now coming back to the market.
The question is how many properties like this are out there?
Type: Listed on MLS(#071081723)
List Price: $524,900
Cost: $699,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $205,594
Loss%: 29.41%
Purchase Date: 07/28/2004
Holding Period: 39 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 1329
Purchase Details: view
| | 10/16/2007 8:46:00 AM |
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| 2003 Prices Arrive at Discovery | San Diego Market Monitor - Very interesting closed sale on this Discovery condo
This is an almost four year hold time that still generated a substantial loss. | | 10/11/2007 8:35:00 PM |
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| Problems at Solar Lofts & Tower? | San Diego Market Monitor - Extremely interesting report over in this forum post regarding part of the Solar Tower has gone into foreclosure. There is also a report of a developer bankruptcy possibility as well.
Solara Tower was supposed to be the sibling project to the neighboring Solara Loft project. Solara Loft is now completed and sales are almost assuredly less than projected and given the broader credit market problems this is not too surprising. | | 10/10/2007 11:48:00 AM |
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| Former Condo Project Converts to Affordable Rentals | San Diego Market Monitor - 
The condo project planned for the East Village to be built where the Burger King on 10th Avenue now resides is going to be built after all, this time as an affordable rental project with CCDC and tax free bond subsidies.
From the Union Tribune story today I find the following detail particularly interesting:
"The developer, San Diego-based Affirmed Housing, got the land at the bargain-basement price of $4.4 million, or $202 a square foot. The current per-square-foot average is $250; the average was $350 during the market heyday two years ago, said one real estate economist."
This means that developable "dirt" downtown has depreciated roughly 40%. While not surprising given predictions made on this blog and by many market watchers getting confirmation with actual transaction data is always notable. | | 9/24/2007 8:25:00 PM |
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| Downtown Condo at Park Blvd West #1405 | San Diego Market Monitor - This smaller two bedroom unit at Park Boulevard West is listed substantially below its last sale in December 2004 and is very close to the original developer price set by DR Horton probably sometime in early 2003.
Market watches may be interested to know that this project is a bit of a sibling to La Boheme in North Park which is the subject of a lot of promotion for a "quasi-auction" that is taking place soon.
Type: Listed on MLS(#076047580)
List Price: $409,900
Cost: $500,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $114,694
Loss%: 22.94%
Purchase Date: 12/23/2004
Holding Period: 33 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 910
Purchase Details: view
| | 9/17/2007 9:15:00 AM |
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| Downtown Condo at Symphony Terrace #503 | San Diego Market Monitor - This Cortez Hill condo is interesting as it's last sale date is in early 2004, it's a bank owned property and based on the MLS pictures it was throughly trashed by the prior tenant.
Type: Listed on MLS(#076070982)
List Price: $209,900
Cost: $276,500
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $79,194
Loss%: 28.64%
Purchase Date: 02/18/2004
Holding Period: 43 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Purchase Details: view
| | 9/7/2007 9:51:00 AM |
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| Huge Loss on Bank Owned Downtown Condo at La Vita #1308 | San Diego Market Monitor - La Vita is located in Little Italy and is a "middle market" complex. This unit pretty much personifies the current crisis in the credit markets as it was purchased just over a year ago and has already gone back to the lender.
Type: Listed on MLS(#076059723)
List Price: $549,900
(Range priced $549,900 to $549,900)
Cost: $725,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $208,094
Loss%: 28.70%
Purchase Date: 08/04/2006
Holding Period: 12 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1132
Purchase Details: view
| | 8/28/2007 7:43:00 PM |
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| Downtown Condo at ParkLoft #414 | San Diego Market Monitor - ParkLoft is a mid rise "loft" style project near Petco Park.
This unit has a fairly large loss but what is really interesting is that it is listed below the developer sale price from four years ago - way back in 2003!
Type: Listed on MLS(#076042541)
List Price: $487,000
(Range priced $475,000 to $499,000)
Cost: $523,900
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $66,120
Loss%: 12.62%
Purchase Date: 06/27/2003
Holding Period: 50 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 0
Bathrooms: 1.5
Square Feet: 1380
Purchase Details: view
| | 8/21/2007 1:16:00 PM |
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| Downtown Condo at Horizons #1301 | San Diego Market Monitor - Horizons is a Bosa project in downtown's Marina District.
The loss on this unit isn't horrible relative to the other losses that we've seen. What is very notable is the last sale was back in April 2004 which is getting awfully close to 2003 prices. Keep in mind this is a very high quality building and not an apartment conversion.
Type: Listed on MLS(#076057042)
List Price: $609,000
(Range priced $599,000 to $619,000)
Cost: $635,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $62,540
Loss%: 9.85%
Purchase Date: 04/28/2004
Holding Period: 40 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1036
Purchase Details: view
| | 8/8/2007 3:17:00 PM |
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| Bankers Hill Condo Project Ceases Construction | San Diego Market Monitor - The San Diego Union Tribune reports on the work stoppage at a Bankers Hill midrise.
This is too bad in my view as more development on Bankers Hill is a positive. Regardless this is not overly surprising given the credit crunch on Wall Street. | | 8/3/2007 7:23:00 AM |
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| Lofts at 777 6th Avenue | San Diego Market Monitor - The Lofts at 777 6th Avenue was a rental project that was converted into condos. This is another apartment conversion project that is likely to have a majority of the units worth less than what the current owners paid. There are four units current listed for sale at losses noted below:
Unit #411
Type: Listed on MLS(#076058976)
List Price: $409,000
(Range priced $389,000 to $429,000)
Cost: $438,990
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $54,530
Loss%: 12.42%
Purchase Date: 10/27/2006
Holding Period: 9 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 749
Purchase Details: view
Unit #207
Type: Listed on MLS(#076050300)
List Price: $387,000
(Range priced $379,000 to $395,000)
Cost: $441,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $77,220
Loss%: 17.51%
Purchase Date: 10/12/2006
Holding Period: 9 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 725
Purchase Details: view
Unit #415
Type: Listed on MLS(#076054817)
List Price: $412,000
(Range priced $399,000 to $425,000)
Cost: $486,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $98,720
Loss%: 20.31%
Purchase Date: 10/04/2006
Holding Period: 9 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Purchase Details: view
Unit #205
Type: Listed on MLS(#076058984)
List Price: $389,000
(Range priced $379,000 to $399,000)
Cost: $441,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $75,340
Loss%: 17.08%
Purchase Date: 10/02/2006
Holding Period: 9 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 725
Purchase Details: view
| | 7/25/2007 5:51:00 PM |
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| Downtown Condo at Symphony Terrace #801 | San Diego Market Monitor - Symphony Terrace is on Cortez Hill and was built in the early 80s. As one of the older buildings around this property has an interesting price history. The description indicates the unit is in need of upgrades.
Type: Listed on MLS(#076039349)
List Price: $499,000
(Range priced $499,000 to $499,000)
Cost: $560,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $90,940
Loss%: 16.24%
Purchase Date: 07/02/2004
Holding Period: 36 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1384
Purchase Details: view
| | 7/20/2007 11:06:00 AM |
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| Downtown Condo at La Vita #M706 | San Diego Market Monitor - La Vita is an Intergulf project in Little Italy.
This unit is at the top of the midrise tower. This unit is listed dramatically below its last sale price from early 2006.
Type: Listed on MLS(#071053258)
List Price: $699,900
Cost: $810,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $152,094
Loss%: 18.78%
Purchase Date: 02/03/2006
Holding Period: 17 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1246
Purchase Details: view
| | 7/11/2007 1:42:00 PM |
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| Downtown Condo at Atria #422 | San Diego Market Monitor - Atria is the former 101 Market Street Apartments which was converted into condominiums by Hammer Ventures back in the boom days. I am not sure how involved Hammer is in the project at this point. I would imagine that many of their conversion projects are under significant financial stress.
This unit is listed below the developer price from about two years ago. It's a unique unit as there are not many three bedrooms downtown. That said for over $700,000 there much better values to be had in the downtown marketplace.
Type: Listed on MLS(#076051448)
List Price: $729,000
Cost: $762,080
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $76,820
Loss%: 10.08%
Purchase Date: 09/22/2005
Holding Period: 22 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 3.5
Square Feet: 1496
Purchase Details: view
| | 7/5/2007 9:43:00 PM |
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| Huge Loss on Downtown Condo at The Mills #304 | San Diego Market Monitor - The Mills is neck and neck with Acqua Vista as the complex with the biggest losses. Acqua Vista is bigger and taller so it has a higher profile. The most pain may be taking place at the Mills however. The quality levels there are low and there aren't any amenities.
This particular unit is listed significantly below the developer price set three years ago.
Type: Listed on MLS(#076031910)
List Price: $440,000
(Range priced $430,000 to $450,000)
Cost: $516,066
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $102,466
Loss%: 19.86%
Purchase Date: 07/27/2004
Holding Period: 36 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2
Square Feet: 1090
Purchase Details: view
| | 7/3/2007 9:17:00 AM |
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| Downtown Condo at La Vita #205 | San Diego Market Monitor - La Vita is the tallest building in Little Italy and was completed right around the high in the market. The one bedrooms there are all virtually identical short of view and granite color which creates a nice situation for market watchers to gauge the value of these units.
This unit has generated a huge loss for a model one bedroom condo. I know there were several units like this that were flipped when the building was opened so I'm certain there are more distressed properties in La Vita.
Type: Listed on MLS(#078045642)
List Price: $362,250
Cost: $435,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $94,485
Loss%: 21.72%
Purchase Date: 03/24/2006
Holding Period: 15 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 706
Purchase Details: view
| | 6/28/2007 9:10:00 AM |
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| Downtown Condo at Bella Via #208 | San Diego Market Monitor - Bella Via is located on India right in the heart of Little Italy. This unit is listed significantly below its last sales price from the summer of 2004 - nearly three years ago!
Type: Listed on MLS(#076048415)
List Price: $435,000
Cost: $500,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $91,100
Loss%: 18.22%
Purchase Date: 08/05/2004
Holding Period: 34 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 1
Bathrooms: 1
Square Feet: 903
Purchase Details: view
| | 6/21/2007 1:55:00 PM |
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| Downtown Condo at ParkLoft #1102 | San Diego Market Monitor - Parkloft is in the recently carved out of the East Village Ballpark District.
This unit shows a significant net loss, even more interesting is the last sales date of February 2004 which was over three years ago.
Type: Listed on MLS(#076032067)
List Price: $1,894,900
Cost: $1,950,000
Loss@6% Sales Expenses: $168,794
Loss%: 8.66%
Purchase Date: 02/20/2004
Holding Period: 40 months and counting...
Bedrooms: 2
Bathrooms: 2.5
Square Feet: 2914
Purchase Details: view
| | 6/6/2007 9:09:00 AM |
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