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San Diego, CA 92116
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General Info | | | Community: Cherokee Court | | Zoning: Restricted Multiple | | Use: Mutliple 5 to 15 Units | | Parcel Number: 4471112600 | |
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| Sales History |
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| 06/19/2006 | $2,350,000 | 6y 11m | 224% | 19% | | 06/19/2006 | $2,350,000 | 6y 11m | 224% | 19% | | 07/22/1999 | $725,000 | 13y 6m | -9% | -1% | | 12/30/1985 | $800,000 | 1y 2m | 310% | 228% | | 10/22/1984 | $195,000 | n/a | - | - |
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| Nearby Homes For Sale |
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| Adela #240 | $205,000 | | Cityscape #B | $98,000 | | Cherokee Court #2 | $95,000 | | Adela #106 | $144,500 | | Cityscape #A | $125,000 | | The Bentley #204 | $175,000 | | 4425-4427 39th St | $450,000 | | 4472 37th St | $199,900 | | Wilson Ave | $275,000 | | 4424 Mcclintock | $200,000 | | 4418 36th St #3 | $165,000 | | 3618 Monroe Ave | $199,000 | | Adela #115 | $120,000 | | Teralta Heights #45 | $79,900 | | Adela #216 | $130,000 |
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| Nearby Properties |
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| Tax Assessment | | Land Value: $152,956 | | Improvement Value: $254,741 | | Net Value: $407,697 | | Est Property Tax: $5,096 | |
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| Anonymous 3/5/2007 11:27:59 AM | Reply |
16 unit condo conversion. Must sell for $147k per unit to break even.
1 bd unit currently selling for $189k - $209k.
MLS #: 076017975 | | | | Smith 3/5/2007 11:40:15 AM | Reply |
$150K for a one bedroom in a nice neighborhood doesn't seem all that bad. That said I don't know what the rents are like in Kensington. I do like that neighborhood a lot though. | | | | Anonymous 3/5/2007 1:50:04 PM | Reply |
A 150k purchase works out as follows:
Loan Amt 150,000
Int rate 6.25%
Monthly Int 781
Monthy Prop Taxes 150
HOA 200
Insurance 25
Total Expenses 1,156
I think that rent for a 1 bd that area is about $900-$1000/mo. $150k for a 1 bd condo sounds about right for someone who wants to own. With principal payments, the cash "expenses" would be about $150 more.
I ignored the income tax savings because of the $10,500 standard deduction for a couple. Interest + Property taxes is only slightly more than the standard deduction for a couple.
All in all, I'd say that anything more than $150k is not worth owning, unless appreciation kicks back into high gear again (unlikely in my view). | | | | Smith 3/5/2007 3:35:56 PM | Reply |
While I'm bearish on the market this example to me is actually more bullish than bearish. Since the delta between buying and renting is a small number the intangible value of being able to paint whatever you want to put in a tile floor over the weekend has some value.
I do think some value has to be given to the tax benefit, at least on paper. Since you can itemize state income tax, registration and employee business expenses you should probably factor some savings.
Let's assume that in order for the person to get a classic mortgage on this place you would need to make $50K per year, let's say that's roughly $3,500 in State of California income tax. Interest and property tax is $11,172.
The numbers look like so:
$14,672 in itemized expenses
$4,672 is actually experienced (you would have had a $10K deduction anyway)
Marginal tax rate of 28% is an annual savings $1,300 or $110 monthly. (.28 * $4672)
This actually makes renting and buying about the same on paper. This is a decent chance that prices or interest rates will decline. Keep in mind though that moving is driven by other events and that renting can be hassle. I personally would wait but again this is actually a bullish or at least neutral indicator in my book.
When downtown condos go neutral like this I think you'll see some people that have been out of the market start trying to work deals. That said downtown isn't there yet. | | | | Anonymous 3/5/2007 5:24:22 PM | Reply |
All good points, Smith. Thanks for refining my analysis.
It's interesting to note that $900 is pretty much the floor and that $2,000/mo it the ceiling in terms of condo rentals. Few people are willing and able to pay much more.
With that in mind, I think that projects where the monthly purchase costs are within that range will continue to sell.
I have a hard time seeing luxury condos with carrying costs of $4000/month selling like hot cakes like they have in the last few years.
The way I see it is that those luxury condos downtown are loosing $3000/mo and up from there for each month that they sit vacant. How many investors with real wherewithal are there in the condo market?
| | | | Smith 3/5/2007 10:18:20 PM | Reply |
I have no idea how people are buying downtown condos for $5,000 per month. There must be either a lot of equity or leverage.
The stock market is very very unsettled over the subprime meltdown, I suspect credit is going to tighten considerably over the course of the year. Very interesting times. | | | | Anonymous 3/5/2007 10:39:57 PM | Reply |
I am taking this stock market correction very seriously. I have moved to cash and short positions.
I'm short homebuilders, mortgage companies and the QQQQ tracking stock.
In my view there is a least one more big selloff before the market rallies. | | | | stella 3/7/2007 10:37:24 AM | Reply |
which mortgage companies have you shorted? | | | | ShortTheMarket 3/7/2007 4:52:24 PM | Reply |
Fannie Mae, I was going to short Accredited Home Lenders (LEND) which is in North County but could not a get a trade done.
I do think the GSE's are going to take a hit at some point, the have bad accounting, huge risk in their portolios and even Bernake is talking about limiting their focus. | | | | stella 3/13/2007 11:58:54 AM | Reply |
LEND is getting decimated. Also the homebuilder stocks are as well.
This would seem like a very serious event in terms its impact on the housing market. | |
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